Golden Pass and Freeport LNG Maintenance Cuts US Exports to 15.7 Bcf/d, Forgoing $48 Million Daily as JKM Climbs 51 Percent

U.S. LNG export volumes fell to 15.7 billion cubic feet per day on June 2, a four-month low, per Natural Gas Intelligence. That level compares with an April 2026 record of 18.8 Bcf per day and represents a 3.1 Bcf per day reduction from peak throughput. Planned and unplanned outages at three Gulf Coast terminals drove the shortfall.

Three Terminals in Simultaneous Maintenance

Golden Pass LNG in Texas, co-owned by ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy, encountered commissioning-related maintenance on Train 1 in mid-May 2026, weeks after shipping its first-ever LNG cargo on April 22, per EIA Today in Energy. Freeport LNG, also in Texas, placed one of its three liquefaction trains in a planned multi-week maintenance cycle during the same period. Cameron LNG in Louisiana completed a 30-day annual maintenance cycle on one train in early June and has returned to normal operations. Together, the three terminals reduced flowing capacity by an estimated 3.1 Bcf per day relative to April volumes, per Natural Gas Intelligence.

QatarEnergy Faces a Double Supply Constraint at Golden Pass

QatarEnergy holds an equity stake in Golden Pass LNG alongside operator ExxonMobil. That arrangement means QatarEnergy faces simultaneous supply constraints from two directions. The company invoked force majeure on all LNG shipments from Qatar on March 4, 2026, when Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz severed Qatar's primary export route. Now Train 1 at Golden Pass, where QatarEnergy anticipated early volumes from its U.S. liquefaction investment, sits in maintenance during the highest-priced LNG market in recent history.

JKM at $18.77 and the Spread Calculation

Asian LNG benchmarked against the Japan/Korea Marker traded at $18.77 per MMBtu as of June 4, per Trading Economics and CME Group data, up 51 percent year-on-year. European TTF natural gas futures stood at 48.63 euros per MWh, up 33 percent year-on-year, per Trading Economics. Henry Hub natural gas traded at $3.29 per MMBtu on June 5, per OilPrice.com, a decline of 1.5 percent on the day.

The gross Henry Hub-JKM spread stood at approximately $15.48 per MMBtu on Thursday. Each billion cubic feet per day of U.S. LNG export capacity corresponds to roughly $15.48 million per day in that aggregate spread differential. The 3.1 Bcf per day shortfall from the April record leaves approximately $48 million per day in unrealized spread during the highest-priced LNG period since the Hormuz closure began. This figure represents the full Henry Hub-JKM differential before liquefaction tolling fees and shipping costs, reflecting aggregate market exposure across operators, shippers, and offtake customers.

European Storage at 38 Percent Amplifies the Pressure

European gas storage stood at 38 percent of capacity in early June, well below seasonal norms that typically see inventories at 60 percent or higher by this point in the injection cycle. The Strait of Hormuz closure has removed roughly 30 million tonnes per year of Qatari and UAE LNG from the global market since March 4. QatarEnergy invoked force majeure on Qatari LNG exports that day, cutting off approximately one-fifth of global LNG trade. Goldman Sachs estimated in May 2026 that TTF could rise toward 100 euros per MWh if the Hormuz disruption extends through the European winter refill window.

The IEA's May 2026 Oil Market Report projected global LNG supply would fall approximately 30 million tonnes in 2026 relative to pre-crisis 2025 volumes. The Panama Canal provided limited arbitrage relief: only four laden westbound LNG carriers transited the canal in April 2026, with 31 of 34 Asia-bound cargoes routing via the Cape of Good Hope instead, per Cyprus Shipping News. U.S. LNG terminals are therefore operating as a critical supply buffer for European and Asian buyers with few alternatives.

Volume Recovery Timeline

Golden Pass Train 2 targets startup in the second half of 2026, with Train 3 expected in early 2027. Full capacity across all three trains is approximately 2.4 Bcf per day, per EIA data. Freeport LNG's maintenance-affected train is expected to return to service within weeks, per Natural Gas Intelligence. June-to-date average U.S. LNG exports stand at 16.0 Bcf per day, above the June 2 trough but still below the April record of 18.8 Bcf per day.