OPEC Trims 2026 Oil Demand Growth Forecast to 0.2 Million Bpd as ICE Brent Settles at $106.65

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries forecast global oil demand growth of 0.2 million barrels per day in 2026 in its October Monthly Oil Market Report, down from 0.4 million a month earlier. ICE Brent December futures settled at $106.65 per barrel on Oct. 12, up $1.93 on the day.

The revision narrows but does not close one of the widest gaps in oil forecasting. OPEC still expects demand to rise this year, while the International Energy Agency's most recent report projects a steep decline, and that disagreement shapes how producers and buyers plan for 2027.

OPEC Raises 2027 Demand Growth Forecast to 2.6 Million Bpd

OPEC lifted its 2027 demand growth forecast to about 2.6 million barrels per day, from about 2.4 million in September. It expects the OECD to grow by about 0.5 million barrels per day next year and the non-OECD by about 2 million.

For 2026, OPEC sees OECD demand easing by about 0.2 million barrels per day and non-OECD demand growing by about 0.4 million. In June, the group had forecast 2026 growth of 1.0 million barrels per day.

OPEC left its global economic growth forecasts unchanged at 3% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. Its U.S. forecasts also held, at 2.2% for 2026 and 2% for 2027.

OPEC and the IEA Are 2.7 Million Bpd Apart on 2026 Demand

The IEA said in its September Oil Market Report that world oil demand would decline by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. It projected a recovery of 2.6 million barrels per day in 2027, narrowly offsetting this year's losses.

That leaves the two forecasters 2.7 million barrels per day apart on 2026, Oil Authority calculations show, while they agree on the size of the 2027 increase. The IEA publishes its next report on Oct. 14.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's October outlook adds a price view. It forecasts Brent spot at $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter, assuming shut-ins average 4.5 million barrels per day.

OPEC Reference Basket Averaged $110.59 in September

The OPEC Reference Basket rose $24.15 in September to average $110.59 per barrel, the report said. The ICE Brent front-month contract averaged $102.02, up $13.94, and NYMEX WTI averaged $95.69.

OPEC said the forward curves of the major crude benchmarks steepened as geopolitical tensions, disruptions to regional flows and strong demand for prompt barrels pushed front-month prices above forward prices.

The group put demand for crude from countries in the Declaration of Cooperation at 43.9 million barrels per day in 2027, about 1.8 million above its 2026 forecast.

OPEC Names Canada Among Drivers of Non-DoC Supply Growth

OPEC forecast liquids supply from countries outside the Declaration of Cooperation to grow by about 0.6 million barrels per day in both 2026 and 2027. Canada is named as a main driver in both years, alongside Brazil and Argentina.

Canadian producers are selling into a wide discount. Alberta Treasury Board and Finance reported the WTI-WCS differential at US$24.69 on Oct. 8, with front-month WTI at US$91.49, as detailed in our Oct. 9 rig count report.

ICE Brent December Rises to $106.65 as UKMTO Logs New Attacks

The December contract settled at $104.72 on Oct. 9 before Monday's gain, and January Brent settled at $103.20. The EIA's Europe Brent spot price was $129.95 on Oct. 12, well above the futures settlement.

UK Maritime Trade Operations recorded tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz on Oct. 10 and Oct. 11, and logged further reports on Oct. 12 of a container vessel, a products tanker and a crude oil tanker struck by unknown projectiles. Our Oct. 8 markets report covered earlier incidents.

IEA Report on Oct. 14 and EIA Inventory Data on Oct. 15 Are Next

The IEA's Oct. 14 Oil Market Report will show whether the agency holds its demand decline forecast. The EIA's weekly petroleum report for the week ended Oct. 9 follows on Oct. 15, delayed a day by the federal holiday.