Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley Both Set Q4 2026 Brent at $80 While Citi Targets $70, Banks Diverge on Hormuz Recovery Pace

Goldman Sachs reduced its Q4 2026 Brent crude forecast by $10 to $80 per barrel on Thursday, citing an accelerated timeline for Persian Gulf export recovery. Morgan Stanley set the same Q4 Brent target, cutting its estimate from $95 per barrel, while Citi set a more bearish Q4 Brent target of $70 per barrel. Brent crude settled at $80.59 per barrel on Friday's ICE close, placing the front-month contract within 60 cents of Goldman's and Morgan Stanley's year-end target just six months before December.

Goldman Moves Gulf Recovery to Late July and Raises $130 Tail Risk Scenario

Goldman Sachs moved its Persian Gulf export recovery projection forward to late July from a previous estimate of late August, as faster-than-expected implementation of the US-Iran deal terms led the bank to revise. The bank projects approximately 70 percent of prewar Hormuz throughput will resume by end of July and sets Q4 2026 WTI crude at $75 per barrel. Goldman also holds a tail scenario: if Hormuz supply disruptions persist into 2027, the bank projects Brent could exceed $130 per barrel by year-end 2026 and average $105 per barrel in 2027. That range, from $80 in the base case to $130 in the disruption scenario, reflects unresolved uncertainty around whether Saturday's traffic stall at Hormuz is temporary or structural.

Morgan Stanley Sees Q3 Brent at $90 on 3.4 Million Barrel Per Day Deficit

Morgan Stanley cut its Q3 2026 Brent forecast from $100 to $90 per barrel, reflecting expectations that Hormuz supply will remain only partially restored through the summer. Commodity strategist Martijn Rats forecasts 50 percent of disrupted Persian Gulf production returning by September and 80 percent by December. Morgan Stanley estimates global oil markets face an average supply deficit of approximately 3.4 million barrels per day in the third quarter, even accounting for partial Hormuz recovery. That deficit projection supports the bank's view that Brent holds near $90 through September before declining toward the $80 Q4 target.

Citi Targets $70 Brent in Q4 and Warns of $10 to $15 Additional Downside

Citi set Q3 2026 Brent at $75 per barrel and Q4 at $70, implying 13 percent downside from Friday's ICE close at $80.59 per barrel. Analysts at Citi argued that oil markets have not fully priced in the benefit of sustained uninterrupted Hormuz shipping, estimating $10 to $15 per barrel of additional downside if markets fully digest the peace deal. Citi assigns a 60 percent probability to Hormuz resuming regular navigation by mid-to-late July and recommends selling summer crude contracts on price rallies. The bank also cut its full-year 2027 Brent forecast from $80 to $65 per barrel, diverging more sharply from Goldman's $75 per barrel 2027 average.

Cushing Crude Stocks Near Operational Minimum Provide a WTI Price Floor

US crude inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma pipeline hub stood near 20 million barrels in mid-June 2026, approximately 26 percent of the hub's 76-million-barrel total capacity and close to the operational minimum. Record US crude exports during the Hormuz conflict drew down Cushing stocks as the United States served as a global supplier of alternative barrels to buyers who could not secure Gulf cargoes. Oil Authority reported last week that Goldman was then holding its $90 Q4 Brent forecast even as spot Brent fell below $80 on the Iran peace deal announcement. The revised $80 call confirms Goldman now aligns with the spot market, while Citi's $70 Q4 target implies the bearish scenario has not been fully reflected in Friday's close.