EIA's 4.77 Million Bpd Gulf Shut-In Estimate Equals $523 Million a Day at $109.55 Brent

Middle East crude production shut-ins averaged 4.77 million barrels per day in September, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's October Short-Term Energy Outlook. At the ICE Brent December settlement of $109.55 per barrel on Oct. 19, that volume is worth about $522.6 million a day, Oil Authority calculations.

EIA Shut-In Estimates for Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait and Iraq

The EIA's country table puts Saudi Arabia's September shut-ins at 1.70 million barrels per day, down from 3.27 million in August. Iran's rose to 1.20 million from 900,000, Kuwait's to 930,000 from 630,000, and Iraq's eased to 760,000 from 780,000. Qatar's held at 100,000 barrels per day and Bahrain's at 80,000, while the EIA estimated no shut-ins for the United Arab Emirates in either month.

The regional total fell from 5.76 million barrels per day in August and from a peak of 10.9 million in May. The EIA forecasts 4.47 million barrels per day of shut-ins in the fourth quarter and 2.68 million in the first quarter of 2027, worth about $489.7 million and $293.9 million a day at the Oct. 19 settlement, Oil Authority calculations.

IEA Says Gulf Product Exports Are 40% of Pre-War Levels

The International Energy Agency said in its Oct. 14 Oil Market Report that Gulf crude exports rose 4.4 million barrels per day in September to 13.9 million, more than 75% of pre-war levels. Refined product exports reached 1.9 million barrels per day against 4.7 million before the war, and LPG exports reached 670,000 barrels per day against 1.5 million.

The two agencies measure different things. The EIA estimates production that is shut in, while the IEA tracks volumes leaving the region. Product exports are the larger gap in percentage terms: at 1.9 million barrels per day, they are about 40% of pre-war levels, while crude exports are above 75%.

IEA Says Global On-Land Oil Stocks Are Lowest Since 2016

The IEA said global observed stocks fell 10 million barrels in September, as on-land stocks dropped 113 million barrels and oil on water rose 103 million. Global stocks were 509 million barrels below end-February levels, and on-land stocks were at their lowest since at least 2016. The EIA estimates global inventories fell 1.9 million barrels per day in the third quarter and will fall another 0.7 million barrels per day in the fourth.

The rise in oil on water reflects longer voyages and ship-to-ship transfers. The EIA said ships are taking longer routes to avoid conflict zones, which limits the number of available vessels, and that tanker rates reached record levels in September.

UKMTO Reports Tanker Incident East of Duqm, Oman

UK Maritime Trade Operations logged 12 attack reports from Oct. 12 to Oct. 17. On Oct. 20, it issued an advisory on an incident involving a tanker and military forces about 121 nautical miles east of Duqm, Oman. Our Oct. 19 settlement report lists the earlier incidents.

EIA Brent Spot at $118.82 Runs $13.82 Above the Q4 Forecast

The EIA forecasts Brent spot at $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter, assuming shut-ins of about 4.5 million barrels per day, and $87 by the second quarter of 2027 as bypass routes, ship-to-ship transfers and new UAE pipeline capacity reduce the shortfall. The EIA's Europe Brent spot price was $118.82 on Oct. 19, $13.82 above the fourth-quarter forecast. Our Oct. 12 forecast report compared other outlooks.

U.S. Crude Imports From Canada of 3.75 Million Bpd Near the Size of the Gulf Shut-In

U.S. crude imports from Canada averaged 3.75 million barrels per day in the week ended Oct. 9, according to the EIA, a volume close to the Middle East's entire September shut-in and the largest single source of U.S. imports by a wide margin. Alberta Treasury Board and Finance reported the WTI-WCS differential at US$24.96 on Oct. 15, showing that Canadian barrels are not capturing the full benefit of higher global prices while pipelines run near capacity.

IEA and EIA November Outlooks Will Update Gulf Shut-In Estimates

The IEA's November Oil Market Report and the EIA's November outlook will update the export and shut-in estimates. The EIA's weekly petroleum report on Oct. 21 will show U.S. exports, which have helped fill part of the gap.