Henry Hub Closes at $3.32 Per MMBtu as EIA Storage Build Trails Year-Ago Level by 11 Percent

Henry Hub natural gas settled at $3.321 per MMBtu on Friday's CME close, rising 7.13 percent on the day and reaching its highest level since early February 2026, according to Trading Economics and Natural Gas Intelligence. The weekly advance totaled 2.82 percent. Friday's settlement puts Henry Hub 17.3 percent above the EIA's May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook forecast of $2.83 per MMBtu for the second quarter of 2026, published May 12.

Natural gas diverged from crude oil markets on May 29. WTI and Brent both fell on optimism about a U.S.-Iran ceasefire that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz; Henry Hub responded instead to domestic storage and LNG export demand signals. That structural split reflects natural gas's distinct demand stack: LNG feed gas requirements and power generation rather than transportation fuel.

EIA Reports Storage Injection 11.5 Percent Below Year-Ago Level

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 92 billion cubic foot net injection to working gas storage for the week ending May 22, 2026. Analysts had forecast an injection of 95 to 96 Bcf; the 92 Bcf print came in below that consensus range and 11.5 percent below the 104 Bcf injected in the same week of 2025. Tighter-than-seasonal storage builds signal demand pressure from LNG feed gas requirements and power-sector load heading into summer. Total working gas storage as of May 22 remained below year-ago levels, reinforcing the price-supportive backdrop.

LNG Export Demand Pulls Gas Away From Storage

U.S. LNG exports consumed a growing share of domestic natural gas production in early 2026, compressing the volume available for seasonal storage injection. Oil Authority's April 17 coverage noted U.S. LNG exports reached near-record levels of 18.9 Bcf/d, driven by Cheniere's Corpus Christi expansion. Golden Pass LNG Train 1, a QatarEnergy-ExxonMobil joint venture that shipped its first export cargo April 22, added 0.7 Bcf/d of nominal capacity to that demand base, further increasing feed gas consumption. Both Corpus Christi and Golden Pass draw from the same Gulf Coast grid that anchors Henry Hub spot pricing at Erath, Louisiana.

EIA STEO Projects $3.50 Full-Year Average; NGI Flags Rising Volatility

The EIA's May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook projects Henry Hub to average $3.50 per MMBtu for full-year 2026, implying a price increase in the second half of the year to offset the weak first half. Friday's $3.321 settlement is $0.179 below that annual average projection, a gap that closes if summer cooling demand and LNG feed gas continue to outpace storage builds. Natural Gas Intelligence separately noted that Henry Hub price volatility is expected to rise in 2026 as LNG feed gas demand becomes a larger and less predictable share of the total demand stack. These two forecaster views converge on a structurally tighter market but diverge on whether the tightening will drive prices above or below the $3.50 annual average.

Producer Implications at $3.32 Henry Hub

Gas producers with Appalachian and Haynesville acreage receive improved cash netbacks at $3.321 per MMBtu, a level 17.3 percent above the EIA's own Q2 forecast of $2.83 per MMBtu. Operators who reduced 2026 hedging in anticipation of sub-$3.00 prices benefit from Friday's settlement. The EIA's May STEO lowered its Q2 natural gas forecast from the prior month, partly citing expected Hormuz-related industrial demand reductions that proved less severe than modeled.