Goldman Sachs Cuts 2027 Brent Forecast to $80 as China EV Shift and Non-OPEC Supply Growth Offset Hormuz Premium

Goldman Sachs cut its 2027 Brent crude forecast to $80 per barrel on June 11, citing stronger non-OPEC supply growth and a structural shift in Chinese oil demand. The revision aligns Goldman's 2027 outlook with the EIA's June 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, which projects Brent averaging $79 per barrel next year. Both forecasters sit well below OPEC's 2027 demand trajectory.

Goldman and EIA Align on 2027 While OPEC Projects Growth

Goldman's revised 2027 Brent target reflects two structural shifts. Supply from the United States, Guyana, the UAE, Brazil, and Venezuela is growing faster than the bank previously assumed. Goldman analysts stated that "just over 10% of the demand weakness persists as China's shift to alternatives, such as EVs, accelerates." The bank's base case calls for Strait of Hormuz flows to normalize to 70% of pre-war levels by late August 2026.

The EIA's June 9 Short-Term Energy Outlook projects a 2026 full-year Brent average of $95 per barrel, with June and July at $105 per barrel due to the Hormuz closure. Goldman's Q4 2026 base case sits at $90 per barrel. Both agencies then forecast a step-down in 2027 as Gulf production recovers, landing at $79 for the EIA and $80 for Goldman.

OPEC Projects Demand Growth While EIA and IEA See Contraction

OPEC's June 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report projects global oil demand growth of 970,000 barrels per day in 2026. The EIA's June STEO projects global demand falling by 1.1 million barrels per day this year, citing the Hormuz closure and economic spillovers. The IEA's May 2026 Oil Market Report projected demand contracting by 420,000 barrels per day for the full year. The spread between OPEC's demand growth projection and EIA's demand contraction estimate totals more than 2 million barrels per day.

Goldman's scenario analysis spans a wide range. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens earlier than the base case, Goldman sees Brent falling to $70 per barrel by year-end 2026 and potentially $60 in 2027. If the strait remains closed through 2026, Brent could open 2027 at $140 per barrel. The $80 base case embeds a gradual recovery in Gulf flows reaching 70% of pre-war levels by late August.

Intraday Prices and the WCS Calculation at Goldman's 2027 Scenario

WTI crude was trading at $84.51 per barrel as of late morning June 12 on the CME, down 3.65% on the day, per Yahoo Finance. Brent traded at $87.00 per barrel on ICE, down 3.74%, as news of a finalized U.S.-Iran peace deal text from Pakistan's Prime Minister drove both benchmarks lower. Western Canadian Select for July delivery settled at $11.90 per barrel below WTI as of June 10, per BOE Report, placing intraday WCS at $72.61 per barrel.

At Goldman's 2027 Brent forecast of $80, a typical $3 to $5 Brent-WTI spread would place WTI between $75 and $77 per barrel. The Alberta Energy Regulator's ST98 outlook projects the WCS discount widening to $13 per barrel in 2027 as Trans Mountain approaches full apportionment. At those figures, WCS would price between $62 and $64 per barrel in Goldman's base scenario. In-situ oil sands operations from producers such as Suncor, Canadian Natural Resources, and Imperial Oil (ExxonMobil's 69.6%-owned Canadian subsidiary) generally carry operating costs well below that level, keeping major projects cash-flow positive.

Archive Comparison: Goldman's Q4 2026 Fork Has Narrowed

Earlier this week, Oil Authority reported that Goldman Sachs framed a Q4 2026 Brent revenue fork for Devon Energy's 500,000-barrel-per-day production target, with scenarios splitting between $90 and $115 per barrel. The $80 full-year 2027 forecast released June 11 implies Goldman's analysts assign lower probability to the sustained high-price tail. A path from $90 Brent in Q4 2026 to $80 in full-year 2027 embeds a material price reset as Hormuz flows recover and non-OPEC supply reaches market.