Henry Hub Falls to Two-Month Low at $2.88 as Freeport LNG Maintenance Trims US Exports, TTF Surges 3.7 Percent

Henry Hub natural gas futures fell to $2.88 per MMBtu on Wednesday, a two-month low, per Rigzone market data at 9:10 a.m. EDT July 15. European TTF gas futures gained 3.70 percent to EUR 55.13 per megawatt-hour on the same morning, per TradingEconomics. The divergence is driven partly by scheduled maintenance at the Freeport LNG export terminal in Texas, which began July 10 and has reduced the flow of US gas into global export markets.

The Henry Hub-TTF Spread in Dollar Terms

At a EUR/USD rate of 1.1417, per XE.com data at 11:23 UTC Wednesday, TTF's EUR 55.13 per MWh converts to approximately $62.95 per MWh. Dividing by 3.412 MMBtu per MWh yields approximately $18.45 per MMBtu for TTF in US dollar terms. With Henry Hub at $2.88 per MMBtu, the transatlantic spread stands at $15.57 per MMBtu. Freeport LNG accounted for roughly 20 percent of US LNG exports as of 2022, according to Wikipedia's Freeport LNG entry, and remains one of the country's largest export hubs.

At that facility's approximate throughput of 2 billion cubic feet per day and the current $15.57 per MMBtu spread, Freeport represents about $31 million per day in potential arbitrage margin for its offtakers. Maintenance idling even partial capacity traps that daily value in US domestic gas markets, which are already oversupplied. Every day gas cannot reach European buyers at TTF prices, it contributes instead to the domestic storage build that pushes Henry Hub lower.

Why US Storage Is Adding Pressure

US natural gas in storage stood at 2,983 billion cubic feet as of July 3, per the EIA's July 9 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report. That level is 185 Bcf above the five-year seasonal average and represents a net injection of 61 Bcf from the prior week. Storage running 185 Bcf above the five-year average limits how much any single demand catalyst can lift Henry Hub, even when overseas prices surge. The EIA publishes its next natural gas storage report Thursday, July 16, covering the week ending July 11.

TradingEconomics attributes Henry Hub's weakness to three concurrent factors: rising domestic production, weaker demand forecasts, and reduced LNG export flows due to Freeport maintenance beginning July 10. Production from the Permian Basin and Marcellus Shale has held near record levels through mid-2026, supplying a gas base that domestic demand cannot absorb without export outlets. All three factors point in the same direction, compressing Henry Hub toward a floor only export resumption can lift.

TTF Rising While Henry Hub Falls

TTF's 3.70 percent gain Wednesday reflects European supply anxiety that runs in the opposite direction. The Hormuz disruption has rerouted Middle East LNG flows, reducing spot cargoes that European buyers rely on for summer storage injections. Freeport's maintenance removes a US supply source European utilities had been counting on for July injection cargoes. European buyers competing for a reduced pool of available spot volumes are bidding TTF higher while US domestic gas drifts lower without the export outlet.

Global Infrastructure Partners and Japan's Osaka Gas hold principal interests in Freeport LNG Development LP, according to public corporate filings. Oil Authority reported July 14 that BloombergNEF pushed its global LNG surplus forecast to 2028, with Asian spot JKM at $19.50 per MMBtu at the time of that publication. Freeport's maintenance, starting July 10, reduces the US export throughput that underpins BloombergNEF's incremental supply assumptions. JKM at $19.50 and TTF at $18.45 per MMBtu both sit more than six times above Henry Hub, illustrating the degree to which the Hormuz crisis has severed near-term price linkages between US gas fields and global LNG markets.