BloombergNEF Delays Global LNG Surplus to 2028 as JKM Surges to $19.50 Per MMBtu and Pakistan Secures Emergency Spot Cargoes

BloombergNEF extended its forecast for a global LNG supply surplus from 2026 to 2028, citing the U.S.-Iran conflict and recurring project delays. The two-year shift removes a supply cushion that Asian buyers had anticipated would moderate spot prices in the near term. The Platts JKM marker surged to $19.50 per MMBtu on Monday, its highest reading since early June 2026, according to OilPrice.com.

BloombergNEF's 2028 Surplus Forecast and What Triggered the Revision

The research firm attributed the delay to two overlapping factors: the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, which disrupted both project financing and feedgas supply chains, and repeated schedule slippages at LNG export projects. BloombergNEF did not enumerate specific projects in the publicly cited excerpt, but the combination of conflict-related delays and pre-existing construction timelines extended the glut by two years. The firm had previously expected a period of oversupply to emerge in 2026, which would have pressured global LNG prices lower.

Pakistan is procuring the highest volume of LNG spot cargoes since the Iran conflict began, according to OilPrice.com reporting on July 14. South Asian nations rely on spot LNG for power generation and industrial fuel, and have limited pipeline alternatives. Emergency procurement at JKM levels of $19.50 per MMBtu represents a significant increase above the contracted prices most South Asian buyers secured before the Hormuz crisis.

JKM-to-Henry Hub Spread of $16.58 Per MMBtu: The U.S. Export Incentive Calculation

Henry Hub natural gas settled at $2.923 per MMBtu on Monday, per CME data reported by OilPrice.com. The Platts JKM assessment reached $19.50 per MMBtu the same day. The gross spread between those two benchmarks stands at $16.58 per MMBtu, before liquefaction tolling fees and shipping costs to Asia.

Oil Authority calculates the gross spread between JKM ($19.50) and Henry Hub ($2.923) at $16.58 per MMBtu using Monday settlement data from OilPrice.com. The EIA's July 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook projected Henry Hub at $3.67 per MMBtu for the full calendar year 2026. At $2.923, current spot prices run $0.75 below that forecast, while JKM remains well above pre-conflict Asian price levels.

ECA Phase 1's Pacific Bypass Route Gains Financial Weight

On July 12, Sempra Infrastructure and TotalEnergies shipped the first LNG cargo from Energia Costa Azul Phase 1 near Ensenada, Mexico, as Oil Authority reported. That facility is the first LNG export terminal built on North America's Pacific coast. It routes cargoes directly across the Pacific to Asian buyers without requiring transit through the Persian Gulf.

TotalEnergies holds offtake rights at ECA Phase 1 under a long-term agreement with Sempra Infrastructure. TotalEnergies is one of the world's largest LNG portfolio traders by volume. Its ability to redirect Pacific-routed cargoes to the highest JKM bidder gives it a structural advantage over suppliers whose logistics require passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

EIA and BloombergNEF Address Different Markets but Point in the Same Direction

BloombergNEF now expects LNG oversupply conditions only after 2028. The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, released July 7, projected Henry Hub below $3.50 per MMBtu in 2027. These two forecasts address different parts of the energy complex: BloombergNEF focuses on global LNG trade balance, while the EIA tracks U.S. domestic gas fundamentals. Both point to sustained supply tightness in LNG markets through the near term, with the primary downside risk being a faster-than-expected Hormuz reopening.