Hormuz Weekend Transits Drop to 17 Vessels as Brent Climbs to $93 and Japan Power Costs Hit 3-Year High

Brent crude futures were trading at $93.43 per barrel in Monday morning markets per TradingEconomics, after just 17 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz over the entire weekend. Thirteen tankers crossed the strait on Saturday and four on Sunday, according to OilPrice.com citing vessel-tracking firm Kpler and the UK Maritime Trade Operations authority. Both counts are approximately 90% below the pre-conflict baseline of 130 to 140 daily transits.

From $83.55 to $93.43 in 17 Days

When Iran formally rejected US proposals for a Hormuz shipping corridor on August 9, Brent settled at $83.55 per barrel, as covered in Oil Authority's August 9 report on that standoff. The rejection followed President Trump's statement that a deal was imminent. Brent has since risen $9.88, or 11.8%, as strait transit numbers have continued to fall. At Sunday's four-vessel count, Hormuz petroleum traffic stood at roughly 3% of its pre-conflict daily rate.

Bessent's Sanctions Package Targets Iran Petroleum Buyers

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent scheduled a 2 p.m. Monday press conference to announce new economic measures against Tehran. Bessent called the planned campaign "the single greatest financial offensive ever marshalled against an adversary" in Financial Times commentary published over the weekend. The package targets countries and entities that purchase Iranian petroleum, facilitate Tehran's financial transactions, and enable seaborne fuel transfers. No specific measures were disclosed before the press conference.

Iran Threatens Total Halt to Persian Gulf Exports

Iran's Secretary Rezaei responded to Bessent's language with a counter-threat. "If the economic war continues, not a single drop of oil will be exported, neither through the Strait of Hormuz nor from anywhere in the Persian Gulf," Rezaei said, per OilPrice.com. Iran's preconditions for restoring commercial transit include lifting all US sanctions, ending the US naval blockade on Iranian ports, withdrawing US military forces from the region, and releasing frozen Iranian assets.

EIA Forecast Already Exceeded Before Weekend Collapse

The EIA's August 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, published August 11, projected Brent would average $87 per barrel for the full year. That forecast incorporated an assumption of ongoing Hormuz disruptions of approximately 0.6 million barrels per day. Brent at $93.43 is already 7.4% above the EIA's annual price projection. The weekend transit collapse arrived two weeks after the EIA's publication date and has not been incorporated into any official forecast revision.

At current Brent prices, each additional one million barrels per day of Hormuz disruption beyond the EIA's modeled 0.6 million bpd baseline represents approximately $34 billion per year in global oil trade value. Oil Authority derived this figure from EIA throughput estimates of 15 to 21 million barrels per day through the strait under normal conditions, at $93.43 per barrel. The Strait carries roughly 25% of seaborne global oil trade, according to EIA data cited by Wikipedia's Hormuz article.

LNG and Japan Power Markets Absorb the Shock

The Hormuz disruption has extended into LNG and electricity markets. Spot LNG for northeast Asia delivery, the JKM benchmark, reached $22.50 per million BTU for October delivery Monday, a five-month high per OilPrice.com. That level is roughly double the JKM rate before the Iran conflict began. Qatar's LNG cargoes have been unable to exit through Hormuz since transit restrictions tightened.

Japan's day-ahead electricity price hit $0.16 per kWh on Monday, the highest since January 2023, per OilPrice.com. The 20% weekly surge combined peak summer heat demand with reduced LNG supply from the Middle East. WTI front-month futures on the CME stood at $85.58 per barrel Monday morning, down 1.70% on the day, per OilPrice.com.