Houthi Ballistic Missiles Strike Saudi Tanker NCC WAFA off Yanbu, Closing Aramco's Hormuz Bypass as Brent Climbs to $80.10

Houthi forces fired multiple ballistic missiles at the Saudi-flagged chemical tanker NCC WAFA early Wednesday in the northern Red Sea off the Yanbu coastline, threatening the export route Saudi Aramco relies on to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures rose to $80.10 per barrel on ICE in early Wednesday trading, up 0.91% from Tuesday's settle, per Trading Economics data sourced from ICE Futures Europe. WTI crude traded at $75.82 per barrel on CME, up 0.07%, according to OilPrice.com data as of 09:30 ET. The strike marks the eighth Houthi attack on Saudi shipping since the group announced its Red Sea maritime blockade in late July.

Houthi Spokesperson Claims Precise Hit

Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree announced the attack, stating that Yemeni armed forces conducted "a military operation targeting the Saudi oil tanker 'Wafaa' north of the Red Sea off the Yanbu area using several ballistic missiles" and claiming "a precise hit." NCC WAFA is a chemical and petroleum products tanker in the National Chemical Carriers fleet. National Chemical Carriers is a joint venture between Bahri, the National Shipping Company of Saudi Arabia, and SABIC. Saudi Aramco acquired a 70% controlling stake in SABIC in 2020, making SABIC a Saudi Aramco subsidiary and giving Aramco an indirect stake in the NCC vessel fleet. The Houthi attack on NCC WAFA places Saudi Aramco's downstream shipping infrastructure directly in the line of fire.

Yanbu: The Western End of the Hormuz Bypass

The strike carries strategic weight because Yanbu is the western terminus of Saudi Aramco's Petroline, commonly known as the East-West Pipeline. The pipeline carries crude oil from Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province westward to the Red Sea coast, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz entirely. Its two parallel lines move approximately 5 million barrels per day of crude at full capacity, according to Saudi Aramco. Oil Authority reported earlier this week how Saudi Aramco leaned on the East-West Pipeline in Q2 to sustain $33.4 billion in quarterly earnings despite the Hormuz crisis. Ballistic missiles targeting tankers at the Yanbu loading terminal effectively close that bypass.

At $80.10 per barrel, the East-West Pipeline's daily throughput represents approximately $400 million in crude value moving toward Red Sea export terminals. A sustained 30-day disruption to Yanbu tanker loadings would strand roughly $12 billion in planned crude exports at current prices. Saudi Arabia has rerouted some shipments northward through the Suez Canal, but the Yanbu terminal handles volumes too large for rapid full diversion.

Hormuz Transit Collapses to Five Vessels Wednesday

The Yanbu strike coincides with a severe drop in Hormuz shipping volumes. Only five tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, per vessel tracking data reported by OilPrice.com. EIA estimates the strait normally handles approximately 21 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Dozens of Iranian crude tankers are simultaneously idling near the Iranian coast, blocked from export by a renewed US naval blockade of Iranian crude shipments, according to World Oil. The two maritime chokepoints together account for virtually all Persian Gulf crude reaching Atlantic and Pacific refiners.

Trump Sets 48-Hour Hormuz Deal Window

Diplomatic activity continues alongside the military escalation. President Trump said Wednesday a Hormuz shipping agreement could materialize within 48 hours. The US, Iran, and Oman are negotiating a 60-day interim arrangement to reopen the waterway, per Al Jazeera reporting. When Trump canceled the Iran airstrike in late July, WTI fell 5.7% to $75.76 as markets priced in rapid Hormuz resolution. Brent's climb to $80.10 on Wednesday shows the Houthi escalation has partially restored the war risk premium that diplomatic headlines removed.

A ceasefire with Iran does not automatically stand down Houthi forces, which operate under independent military command in Yemen. Investors pricing in Hormuz relief may underweight the risk of continued Red Sea disruptions after any Iran deal closes. The Houthis have intercepted or diverted approximately 29 Saudi oil tankers since announcing their blockade, per OilPrice.com data.

Analyst Price Forecasts Diverge on Timeline

Trading Economics projects Brent crude at $90.26 per barrel by the end of Q3 2026, assuming diplomatic progress materializes quickly. Energy Intelligence Research (EIR) maintains a longer-term target of $100 per barrel for H2 2027, citing structural supply tightness that persists beyond any near-term Hormuz resolution. Those two forecasts agree on direction but differ substantially on timeline: the Q3 figure assumes a deal closes within weeks, while the H2 2027 figure reflects chronic underinvestment in global upstream capacity.