JKM Asian LNG Reaches $20.20 Per MMBtu as Hormuz Blockade Strands Qatar Exports, Widening Henry Hub Spread to $17.35

The Japan-Korea Marker LNG price reached $20.20 per MMBtu in the Platts daily assessment for July 20, 2026, a 10 percent weekly gain. Qatar LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz entered a third consecutive day of halted movement. Henry Hub natural gas futures settled at $2.85 per MMBtu on Monday, per CME Group data, bringing the Henry Hub-JKM spread to $17.35 per MMBtu. The disruption covers both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb simultaneously following Iran's July 19 ceasefire withdrawal.

Qatar Exports Stranded at the Strait

Qatar is the world's largest LNG exporter, producing approximately 77 million metric tonnes per year from its North Field facilities. All Qatar LNG volumes destined for Asia must transit the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's IRGC Navy declared on July 19 that no cargo would pass without IRGC coordination, severing flows at the source. China's Qatar LNG imports had already fallen 97.9 percent in the second quarter of 2026, as buyers pivoted to US and Australian supply in anticipation of disruption, as Oil Authority reported.

US Gulf Coast: The Only Large-Scale Hormuz-Free Supply

US LNG exports averaged 18.5 billion cubic feet per day in March 2026, exceeding the EIA's full-year 2026 forecast of 17.4 Bcf per day by 6.3 percent, as Oil Authority reported in July. Gulf Coast liquefaction terminals route cargoes east through the Suez Canal or west through the Panama Canal, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz on both paths. Henry Hub spot gas traded at $2.85 per MMBtu on Monday, 22 percent below the EIA's full-year 2026 gas price forecast of $3.67 per MMBtu. Low domestic gas costs and high export capacity make US supply the only major Hormuz-free LNG source available at scale to Asian buyers.

Cheniere Subsidiaries Hold the Liquefaction Capacity

Cheniere Energy operates Sabine Pass Liquefaction in Cameron Parish, Louisiana, and Corpus Christi Liquefaction in Texas, the two largest US LNG export complexes by volume. Most capacity at both terminals is contracted on 20-year sale and purchase agreements at fixed liquefaction tolls of $3 to $3.50 per MMBtu above Henry Hub. Major offtake holders including BP and TotalEnergies, which secured Sabine Pass capacity on long-term SPAs, are positioned to sell into Asian spot markets at $20.20 per MMBtu. US LNG supply chain costs from Gulf Coast to Asian port, covering liquefaction tolls and Pacific freight, run $6 to $8 per MMBtu by industry estimates. At the current $20.20 JKM price, that implies a net margin of $12 to $14 per MMBtu on spot-priced volumes.

Per-Cargo Margin at Current JKM Levels

A standard LNG tanker holds roughly 3.4 billion cubic feet of gas in liquefied form. At $13 per MMBtu, the midpoint of the estimated $12 to $14 net margin range, a single cargo from Sabine Pass delivered to Japan or South Korea represents roughly $44 million above supply chain costs. European TTF gas was last assessed at $19 per MMBtu as of late last week per data cited in Oil Authority's July 20 coverage, reflecting parallel supply anxiety as Bab al-Mandeb also remains under Houthi blockade threat. EU natural gas storage was at 49 percent capacity as of late July, placing European buyers in direct competition with Asian counterparts for non-Hormuz supply.

What the Market Watches Next

Any resumption of Hormuz transits would immediately relieve JKM price pressure, but Iran has not signaled a return to the June 18 ceasefire framework. Australia's Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG operations, in which Chevron holds operating majorities, and the Australia Pacific LNG facility, where ConocoPhillips holds a 37.5 percent stake, are the primary non-Middle East spot alternatives for Northeast Asian buyers. The Platts JKM assessment will update again Tuesday afternoon in the regular pricing cycle. The EIA weekly petroleum inventory report, due July 22, will provide the first US supply reading of the post-ceasefire period.