Kuwait Crude Output Triples to 1.97 Million Barrels as OPEC+ Completes 1.65-Million-Barrel Production Reversal

Kuwait's crude oil production surged to 1.971 million barrels per day in July 2026, up from 1.65 million in June and 580,000 barrels per day in May, according to OilPrice.com. The month-on-month recovery completes the phased reversal of production cuts agreed by seven core OPEC+ members in 2023. Seven producers, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman, also approved a final 188,000-barrel-per-day increment effective September to close out the 1.65-million-barrel-per-day program.

What the OPEC+ Reversal Means in Context

The OPEC+ group of seven originally cut 1.65 million barrels per day in a coordinated agreement at their April 2023 meeting, then extended and managed through 2024 and 2025. As Oil Authority recently reported, a September OPEC+ increment was already factored into market expectations before the Iran situation escalated. The phased restoration brings member production back to pre-cut levels, intended to balance supply against demand projections before the Iran conflict drove prices above $100. WTI crude settled at $80.16 per barrel on Monday's CME close, down 5.33 percent on the day, and Brent settled at $83.72 per barrel on Monday's ICE close, according to OilPrice.com.

Kuwait's Production Recovery: 580K to 1.97 Million in Eight Weeks

Kuwait produced just 580,000 barrels per day in May 2026, well below its OPEC+ allocation, as Persian Gulf security disruptions constrained regional shipping. June output recovered to 1.65 million barrels per day as transit routes partially reopened. July's 1.971 million barrels per day puts Kuwait at roughly 82 percent of its estimated sustainable capacity of 2.4 million barrels per day. Kuwait Oil Company, a government-owned subsidiary of Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, operates the country's main producing fields including the supergiant Burgan field, which holds an estimated 101.5 billion barrels of reserves.

Kazakhstan Drone Attacks Undercut Physical Supply Gains

Kazakhstan faces a production disruption from Ukrainian drone attacks on the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, which handles approximately 80 percent of Kazakhstan's crude oil exports. These attacks reduced Kazakhstan's output from roughly 2 million barrels per day in June to approximately 1 million barrels per day in late July, according to OilPrice.com. A net supply calculation shows the OPEC+ paper reversal adds 1.65 million barrels per day, while Kazakhstan's Novorossiysk disruption removes approximately 1 million barrels per day from actual export flows. The effective net supply addition from these seven OPEC+ producers is closer to 650,000 barrels per day, substantially less than the headline figure.

Saudi Arabia, Goldman Forecasts, and the September Pause Signal

Saudi Arabia has rerouted crude exports twice due to Houthi threats in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, adding transit costs without reducing wellhead production. Goldman Sachs, following a Strait of Hormuz interim deal, revised its Q3 2026 Brent forecast to $82 per barrel and Q4 to $80 per barrel, with a worst-case Q4 scenario of $115 per barrel if hostilities resume. OPEC+ has signaled a potential pause in output hikes after September's final increment, according to Forbes on August 2 and Egypt Oil and Gas reporting, though no formal announcement has been made. Those two signals, a Wall Street bank projecting $80-per-barrel Brent and OPEC+ contemplating a pause, frame a market caught between returning supply and still-elevated geopolitical risk.