Logan Energy Raises 2026 Montney Output Guidance to 18,000 BOE/d and Adds $55 Million to Capital Budget

Logan Energy Corp. raised its 2026 average production guidance to 17,000 to 18,000 BOE/d and expanded its capital program to $230 to $240 million, following first-half well results that outperformed earlier assumptions at its Alberta Montney assets. The revision lifts the guidance midpoint to 17,500 BOE/d, up from a prior range of 16,000 to 17,000 BOE/d. Logan was formed through the spin-out of Montney assets from Spartan Delta Corp. and now operates three positions: Simonette and Pouce Coupe in northwest Alberta, and Flatrock in northeastern British Columbia.

Pouce Coupe Results Drive the Revision

Three wells on the Pouce Coupe 7-12 Pad averaged 1,202 BOE/d per well over their first 30 days of production, with 63 percent liquids. A separate three-well pad at 15-15 averaged 705 BOE/d per well at 61 percent liquids over the same period. Logan estimated second-quarter 2026 production at 17,000 BOE/d, matching the prior annual guidance midpoint within two quarters. The two-pad dataset covers distinct blocks within the Pouce Coupe area, supporting the company's case for consistent inventory quality across the asset.

Capital Budget Grows to $235 Million

Logan expanded its 2026 capital program to $230 to $240 million from prior guidance of $175 to $185 million. The additional $55 million funds five new net wells: three at Pouce Coupe and two at Simonette, all targeted for Q4 2026 onstream. Procurement for a new North Simonette oil battery is also included, with construction scheduled to begin in the first quarter of 2027. South Simonette battery completion remains on track for September 2026, removing a processing constraint ahead of the incremental well onstream dates.

Updated full-year guidance stands at 17,000 to 18,000 BOE/d at 41 percent liquids. Second-half 2026 guidance increased to 19,000 to 20,000 BOE/d at 44 percent liquids, up 1,000 BOE/d from prior guidance. The 17,500 BOE/d midpoint represents 34 percent growth over the 2025 annual average of 13,088 BOE/d.

Capital Efficiency at Current Oil Prices

Logan forecast an operating netback of $29.09 per BOE after hedging for 2026, up from prior guidance of $27.07 per BOE, using a WTI price assumption of US$70 per barrel for the second half of the year. WTI crude was consolidating at US$68.60 per barrel in Sunday session trading on July 6, according to intraday price analysis from FX Daily Report. Logan's internal price deck sits 2 percent above the current spot level, leaving the netback estimate exposed to minor downside if prices do not recover before year-end.

Oil Authority calculates that the $235 million midpoint capital program equals $53,300 per daily BOE of new production capacity, based on the 4,412 BOE/d increase from the 2025 annual average. At the $29.09 per BOE hedged netback, the incremental daily production generates $46.8 million in annual cash flow. The simple payback on the new capacity works out to just over five years at current prices, before accounting for individual well decline. Adjusted Funds Flow for full-year 2026 is forecast at $164 million, up $25 million from prior guidance.

Land Expansion at Simonette

Logan acquired 47.1 net sections in the Simonette area during the second quarter, adding 99.4 net drilling locations and expanding total acreage by 17 percent. The company previously closed a $66.3 million Simonette bolt-on in March 2026, consolidating its working interest in the area to 100 percent. CEO Richard McHardy stated that “strong first-half well performance has increased our confidence in the depth and quality of Logan’s Montney inventory.” He added that current commodity pricing “does not fully reflect underlying supply and demand fundamentals.”

Analyst Price Divergence: Goldman at $82, JP Morgan at $60

Goldman Sachs set its Q3 2026 Brent crude forecast at $82 per barrel and Q4 at $80 per barrel, according to Reuters data cited by Investing.com. J.P. Morgan Global Research forecast a 2026 annual Brent average of $60 per barrel, reflecting a more cautious view on how quickly Hormuz shipping normalization and OPEC+ production hikes build supply surpluses. Brent crude was at $72.36 per barrel in early Sunday session trading on July 6, according to Fortune. The current price sits above the JP Morgan annual average but below Goldman's Q3 target.

Tighter WCS differentials would provide an additional tailwind for Logan's Montney oil volumes. Trans Mountain's expanded capacity already compressed the WCS discount to $12.40 below WTI, as covered in a prior Oil Authority report on the Western Canadian Select spread. A narrower differential improves realized prices for Alberta producers selling into Pacific tidewater or Gulf Coast markets.