Trans Mountain Expansion Shrinks WCS Discount to $12.40 Below WTI, Down $6.25 From 2023 Levels

Western Canadian Select crude settled at $12.40 per barrel below WTI for July delivery at Hardisty, Alberta, according to BOE Report data from June 3, 2026. WTI settled at $68.78 per barrel on the CME on Thursday, July 3, the last trading session before the Independence Day holiday. Applying the most recently assessed WCS differential of $12.40 per barrel to Thursday's WTI settlement implies a WCS value near $56.38 per barrel. The Alberta Energy Regulator's 2026 base-case price forecast calls for WCS at $56.00 per barrel and a $12.00 differential against WTI, placing both figures close to the current actual data.

Trans Mountain Expansion Has Narrowed the Gap by One-Third Since 2023

The WCS-WTI differential stood at $18.65 per barrel in 2023, before the Trans Mountain Expansion entered commercial service in May 2024. By 2024, the spread had narrowed to $14.73 per barrel, according to the Alberta Energy Regulator ST-98 statistical report. The current differential of $12.40 per barrel represents a reduction of $6.25 per barrel from the 2023 level, a 33.5 percent improvement in Alberta producers' realized crude prices relative to WTI. Trans Mountain added a second export corridor to the West Coast, allowing Alberta barrels to reach Asian refiners pricing against Brent rather than competing only in WTI-priced US inland markets.

Alberta Revenue Benefit: Roughly C$4.6 Billion Per Year

The AER estimates that each one-dollar change in the WCS-WTI differential affects provincial revenues by approximately C$740 million annually. Applied to the $6.25 per barrel improvement from 2023, Alberta now captures roughly C$4.6 billion more per year in royalties and corporate taxes than it did under the pre-TMX differential regime. Alberta Central confirmed that Trans Mountain's first year of expanded operations, from May 2024 through April 2025, generated approximately C$13.6 billion in extra revenues across the oil sector. Alberta's government captured about C$5.4 billion of that total, equal to nearly 7 percent of the province's fiscal year 2024-25 revenues.

The pipeline ran at 89 percent of nameplate capacity in March 2025 and diversified Canadian crude exports at scale for the first time. Non-US oil exports more than tripled to approximately 9 percent of total volume by mid-2025. PADD5 refineries on the US West Coast now source over 35 percent of their crude from Canada. Suncor Energy and other major oil sands producers have benefited from the tighter differential, which improves netbacks on every barrel shipped through the expanded system.

OPEC+ Supply Additions Create Headwinds for Heavy Crude

Seven OPEC+ members agreed this week to add 188,000 barrels per day of output for August 2026, according to World Oil. Saudi Arabia exports Arab Heavy crude with a sulfur content and API gravity profile comparable to WCS. As additional medium-to-heavy supply enters global markets, competition for upgrader slots at US Gulf Coast refineries can widen differentials for all heavy sour grades. BOE Report's Rory Johnston noted in June that WTI futures backwardation had temporarily widened the WCS spread, with Hardisty barrels discounted to account for the time required to reach export or refinery destinations.

New West Coast Pipeline Builds on Trans Mountain's Demonstrated Record

Alberta filed a formal application on July 2, 2026, for a second West Coast crude oil pipeline, naming Trans Mountain Corporation and Pembina Pipeline Corporation as lead partners, as Oil Authority reported. Alberta invested $18 million in pre-engineering studies between October 2025 and June 2026 to support the filing. The federal government is expected to designate the project a matter of national interest by October 1, 2026. The economic case rests directly on TMX's track record of narrowing the WCS discount and generating C$13.6 billion in first-year sector revenues.