Nigeria Crude Output Reaches 1,530,354 Bpd in May, Ending 10-Month OPEC Quota Shortfall

Nigeria produced 1,530,354 barrels of crude oil per day in May 2026, surpassing its OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day for the first time since July 2025. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) released the figures on June 11. Combined with condensate output of 170,446 barrels per day, Nigeria's total liquid production reached 1,700,800 barrels per day, the highest combined figure in 10 months.

Terminal-by-Terminal Production Breakdown

Bonny terminal led Nigerian output at 293,870 barrels per day, followed by Forcados at 289,900 barrels per day. Qua Iboe contributed 173,360 barrels per day and Escravos added 135,470 barrels per day. The Odudu stream, also marketed as the Amenam Blend, delivered 63,250 barrels per day. NUPRC noted that production was "robust," with daily output ranging from 1.51 million barrels per day at the low to 1.86 million barrels per day at the peak within the month.

Four International Operators Behind the Recovery

Nigeria's production recovery runs through a restructured set of operators. The Bonny and Forcados terminals were historically operated by Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC), but Shell completed the sale of SPDC to Renaissance African Exploration Company (RAEC) in March 2025. Bonny and Forcados production now flows through RAEC, a Nigerian-led consortium. Qua Iboe is operated by Mobil Producing Nigeria, under a joint venture with the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC Ltd). Escravos is operated by Chevron Nigeria Limited, also in joint venture with NNPC Ltd.

TotalEnergies E&P Nigeria operates the Odudu stream through its stake in the Amenam-Kpono offshore joint venture with NNPC Ltd and partner companies. Nigerian Bonny Light crude commands a consistent premium to Brent for its low sulfur content and is sought by European and Asian refiners. All four operators produce grades that ship via Atlantic routes, unaffected by the Strait of Hormuz closure that is suppressing Gulf OPEC output.

Nigeria's 30,000-Bpd Overage in the Context of OPEC's 8.5 Million-Bpd Deficit

Nigeria's 30,354-barrel-per-day production overage above its 1.5 million bpd OPEC quota is modest against OPEC's overall supply picture. As Oil Authority reported this week, Gulf OPEC producers are running 8.5 million barrels per day below their collective quota due to the Strait of Hormuz closure. Nigeria's overage amounts to 0.36% of that Gulf shortfall. The OPEC supply balance remains far tighter than individual country quota data suggests.

The two compliance deviations reflect different underlying causes. Gulf production shortfalls reflect force majeure conditions, not voluntary cuts. Nigeria's quota breach is operational, driven by a 2.77% month-over-month output increase from April 2026 as pipeline disruptions eased. At Brent's intraday price of $87.00 per barrel on Friday morning, Nigeria's 30,354-barrel daily overage generates $2.64 million of additional daily crude revenue. Over May's 31-day period, that overage premium totals $81.8 million at current prices.

How May 2026 Compares to Nigeria's Production Peak

Nigeria's combined crude and condensate output peaked at 1,712,282 barrels per day in July 2025. May 2026's combined figure of 1,700,800 barrels per day sits 11,482 barrels per day below that record. For crude oil alone, the previous high-water mark was 1,538,000 barrels per day in January 2025. May 2026's crude-only figure of 1,530,354 barrels per day is the highest crude output recorded since that month.

NUPRC attributed May's recovery to improved operational stability and the completion of scheduled turnaround maintenance activities. Nigeria ranks among the top four OPEC producers by crude output at current levels. For the upstream operators that depend on Atlantic-facing terminals, the production recovery provides revenue visibility as Brent holds above $87 per barrel.