Pembina Lifts 2026 EBITDA Guidance Floor to $4.45 Billion, Details 10% Pacific Link Stake

Pembina Pipeline Corporation raised the low end of its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $4.45 billion from $4.35 billion on Thursday. The Calgary company kept the top of the range at $4.55 billion and said it is trending to the upper end.

Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA reached $1,128 million, up nine percent from $1,034 million a year earlier, according to Pembina's results release. Earnings rose to $570 million ($0.92 per share) from $286 million. The release also set out the company's stake in the proposed Pacific Link crude oil pipeline.

Pacific Link: what Pembina has and has not committed

Pacific Link is a proposed crude oil pipeline system of one million barrels per day, running from Alberta to Canada's West Coast, with a related export terminal. Pembina signed a non-binding agreement to participate during the quarter, and Trans Mountain Corporation is the lead proponent. Its economic interest through construction would be 10 percent, with an option for up to another 10 percent once the project enters commercial operation.

The financial exposure is limited for now. In its Oct. 1 release, Pembina said it retains full discretion over any final investment decision and has no at-risk development capital before that decision. President and Chief Executive Officer Scott Burrows said in that release that Pembina "will bring a disciplined and measured approach to Pacific Link as the parties continue to advance the necessary development work."

What the stake means in barrels

Oil Authority calculated the capacity attached to each tier of Pembina's interest. A 10 percent interest on a one million barrel per day system equals 100,000 barrels per day of nominal capacity. The full 20 percent would equal 200,000 barrels per day.

Those figures illustrate scale, not contracted volumes or revenue. The agreement is non-binding, and definitive terms, tolls and shipper commitments have not been disclosed.

The project timeline is the other constraint. The Government of Canada listed Pacific Link as a Project of National Interest on Oct. 1 under the Building Canada Act. Pembina expects to file its application for Conditions Assessment with the Major Projects Office in early 2027, with conditions finalized in the second half of 2027. Alberta's Pacific Link page says construction could start as early as Sept. 1, 2027, if consultation, approvals and permits are complete.

Where the quarter's earnings came from

Pembina reported adjusted EBITDA of $606 million from Pipelines, $400 million from Facilities and $167 million from Marketing & New Ventures. Corporate costs were negative $45 million. Oil Authority's arithmetic puts Pipelines at 53.7 percent of the total, Facilities at 35.5 percent and Marketing at 14.8 percent, before the corporate offset.

Marketing & New Ventures rose $68 million from $99 million a year earlier. Pembina attributed the gain mainly to higher NGL margins, including exposure to premium propane prices in Asian markets through West Coast exports. Facilities added $46 million.

Pipelines fell $24 million, or four percent. Pembina said the new toll structure and revenue-sharing mechanism on Alliance Pipeline, effective Nov. 1, 2025, partly offset volume gains elsewhere in the division.

Fourth-quarter arithmetic

Nine-month adjusted EBITDA totals $3,323 million. Against the updated guidance range, Oil Authority's calculation implies fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of between $1,127 million and $1,227 million. The low end matches the third quarter, so the company's upper-end comment points to a quarter at or above $1,128 million.

Pembina cited higher marketed NGL volumes, colder-weather Alliance Pipeline contributions, more interruptible Cochin Pipeline volumes and new Pembina Gas Infrastructure assets. It has hedged 75 percent of its North American NGL frac spread exposure.

Other projects and the Alliance settlement

Pembina Gas Infrastructure, the company's joint venture with KKR, now owns the Lator infrastructure it committed to build for Whitecap Resources Inc. The battery and gathering laterals entered service in early October under long-term take-or-pay contracts.

Pembina and its partners sanctioned the 932 megawatt Greenlight Electricity Centre in July. At the Cedar LNG project, the floating vessel was more than 77 percent complete at the end of the quarter.

Alliance Pipeline also reached an uncontested settlement on its 2025 U.S. rate case. Mainline recourse tolls stay in place until the end of May 2028, followed by a phased step down through October 2031. Formal FERC approval is anticipated in November, and 2026 guidance is unchanged.

Context in the Canadian pipeline build-out

Pembina's update follows other recent Canadian midstream decisions. Oil Authority reported that Gibson Energy sanctioned the Chauvin pipeline expansion alongside record third-quarter results. Pembina's approach differs: Gibson committed capital to a sanctioned project, while Pembina holds an option on a project still in federal review.

Oil Authority's earlier coverage of the Western Canadian Select discount to WTI showed how takeaway limits affect Alberta producers. Pacific Link targets that constraint, but no volume would move before review and construction.

Pembina declared a fourth-quarter common share dividend of $0.735 per share, payable Dec. 31 to shareholders of record on Dec. 15.