TC Energy Raises 2026 EBITDA Outlook to C$11.8 Billion and Confirms C$4.9 Billion Coastal GasLink Expansion

TC Energy Corporation raised its 2026 comparable EBITDA outlook to C$11.8 billion to C$12.0 billion on Nov. 5, after third-quarter comparable earnings rose to C$983 million from C$805 million a year earlier.

The Calgary-based pipeline and power company also confirmed that the Coastal GasLink Phase 2 expansion, estimated at C$4.9 billion, will add about 2.0 billion cubic feet per day of capacity for LNG Canada.

TC Energy Third-Quarter Comparable EBITDA Rises 13% to C$3.0 Billion

Comparable EBITDA was C$3,004 million in the quarter, compared with C$2,654 million in the third quarter of 2025, the company said in its results release. Net income attributable to common shares was C$1,026 million, or C$0.98 per share.

Capital spending was C$1,412 million in the quarter and C$3,842 million for the first nine months. The company expects 2026 capital expenditures at the lower end of its C$6.0 billion to C$6.5 billion gross range.

"TC Energy's 75th year continues to demonstrate the strength of our integrated North American footprint," said François Poirier, President and Chief Executive Officer, in the release.

For investors, the update shows a company converting a large project backlog into earnings while holding spending below plan. TC Energy said projects placed in service from 2025 to date came in more than 10% under budget in aggregate.

Coastal GasLink Phase 2 Costs C$4.9 Billion and Doubles Capacity to 4.5 Bcf/d

Coastal GasLink moves about 2.1 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas from Dawson Creek to Kitimat along a 670-kilometre route. TC Energy said on Sept. 29 that Phase 2 would proceed after LNG Canada and its joint venture partners took a positive final investment decision on the Kitimat export plant expansion.

The expansion adds compressor stations and facility upgrades on the existing route, with no new pipeline. Firm capacity would rise to about 4.5 billion cubic feet per day, according to the company's third-quarter release.

Construction is expected to start in early 2027, with service beginning in the early 2030s. LNG Canada will lead construction as Phase 2 Execution Manager, while Coastal GasLink stays the owner, operator and permit holder.

The commercial structure limits how much capital the pipeline carries, TC Energy said. Project-level financing of up to C$3.3 billion is planned, and the company's committed equity share is up to about C$250 million.

"Phase 2 will strengthen Canada's role in supplying reliable, affordable and secure energy to global markets," Poirier said in the Sept. 29 release.

Tim Hodgson, Canada's Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, said in the same release that "Canada's investment supercycle is underway."

Oil Authority Calculation: C$2.45 Billion per Bcf/d of New Coastal GasLink Capacity

Oil Authority calculation: dividing the C$4.9 billion estimate by the 2.0 billion cubic feet per day of added capacity gives about C$2.45 billion for each billion cubic feet per day. That is a simple capital intensity measure for compression-led expansions on an existing right-of-way.

On the same basis, TC Energy's committed equity of up to C$250 million is about 5% of the project estimate. Project-level debt of up to C$3.3 billion would cover about two-thirds of it.

LNG Canada Phase 2 Draws C$33 Billion of Private Capital to Kitimat

The federal Major Projects Office says LNG Canada Phase 2 adds 14 million tonnes per year of LNG production and is expected to attract C$33 billion of private-sector capital. Five First Nations hold an option to invest up to C$1 billion for majority ownership of the new storage tank.

The office lists the final investment decision as Sept. 29, 2026. Phase 1 entered production in the summer of 2025, with its first shipment to Asian markets in June 2025.

For Alberta and British Columbia producers, a second phase widens the export outlet beyond the AECO hub. Our earlier coverage of Pembina Pipeline's Pacific Link stake and of Enbridge's Westcoast stake and Tallgrass crude deal tracked other Canadian midstream spending. The Coastal GasLink expansion differs in that it is tied to an export plant with a final investment decision.

TC Energy Guides 2027 Comparable EBITDA to C$12.3 Billion to C$12.5 Billion

TC Energy guided 2027 comparable EBITDA to C$12.3 billion to C$12.5 billion. It expects 2027 gross capital expenditures of C$6.7 billion to C$7.2 billion, and a five-year EBITDA growth rate of 5% to 7% through 2031.

About C$3.4 billion of projects are expected to enter service in 2026, rising to C$4.5 billion to C$5.0 billion in 2027. The Gillis Access extension, worth about US$0.4 billion, entered service on Nov. 1.

At Bruce Power, third-quarter availability was 96.6%, and the Unit 5 Major Component Replacement began in November. The Unit 4 replacement is ahead of schedule and under budget, the company said.

TC Energy declared a quarterly dividend of C$0.8775 per common share, payable Jan. 29, 2027, to holders of record on Dec. 31. The company expects a second First Nations ownership transaction in Coastal GasLink to close in the fourth quarter of 2026.