Rystad Energy: Hormuz War Has Erased 1 Billion Barrels of Global Crude Supply as Enverus Sees Brent at $110 Through 2026

Brent crude futures were trading at $92.06 per barrel in early Wednesday trading on ICE, up 0.66% from Tuesday's settlement, per TradingEconomics. Overnight, the United States conducted strikes against Iranian targets after a US military helicopter was downed and attributed to Iranian forces. WTI futures were at $88.86 per barrel on CME, per OilPrice.com. Ceasefire durability became the market's central question after the overnight exchange.

The 1 Billion Barrel Milestone

Rystad Energy MENA Research Director Aditya Saraswat said Wednesday that cumulative crude supply losses from the Hormuz conflict have now reached 1 billion barrels. Monthly losses continue at roughly 350 million barrels, according to Rystad. The disruption covers 11.8 million barrels per day across six Gulf producers. Rystad described the Hormuz conflict as the most severe supply disruption in the modern oil era. Cumulative losses are projected to nearly double to approximately 2 billion barrels by year-end under Rystad's base case.

What 1 Billion Barrels Means in Market Terms

The cumulative figure equals roughly 2.5 times the current US Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory of approximately 395 million barrels. At Wednesday's Brent price of $92 per barrel, the volume of lost crude represents about $92 billion in supply removed from global physical markets. The ongoing monthly loss rate of 350 million barrels carries a market cost of approximately $32.2 billion per month at current prices. Those figures cover crude only and exclude the refined products and petrochemical output that Gulf refinery capacity would otherwise have supplied.

Analysts Disagree on the Recovery Timeline

Enverus Intelligence Research Director Al Salazar issued a higher-for-longer call, projecting Brent at $110 per barrel for the second half of 2026 and an average of $105 per barrel through 2027. Rystad's own model describes an S-curve recovery rather than a rapid snapback. Tanker repositioning is expected to delay any production restart by two to three weeks after shipping lanes reopen, per Saraswat. Rystad projects 85% of pre-conflict production back online by October, with full recovery unlikely before early 2027.

Standard Chartered Bank Energy Research Head Emily Ashford gave a different recovery trajectory. Ashford projects 30% to 40% of lost supply can return within weeks of lanes reopening. Her analysis warns that 10% to 20% of lost output requires multi-year infrastructure repair, and up to 10% of capacity may be permanently impaired. The US Energy Information Administration expects Hormuz oil shipments to resume in the third quarter of 2026, with full pre-conflict traffic volumes unlikely before early 2027.

Enverus's $110 target and the EIA's Q3 resumption scenario both point toward the third quarter as a turning point, but their price implications diverge sharply. A Q3 supply restart under EIA's timeline would ease physical balances sharply by September. Producers hedged below $90 face significant exposure if Enverus's prolonged price call proves correct instead.

Overnight US Strikes and the Ceasefire Question

Tuesday night's strikes came after the downing of a US military helicopter was attributed to Iranian forces, according to Trading Economics. The action raised fresh concern about the durability of the ceasefire announced on June 8. When Iran and Israel announced a mutual halt to attacks that day, Brent fell to $92.20 per barrel, erasing $34 of the $59 peak Hormuz risk premium. Wednesday's early session price of $92.06 sits within cents of that ceasefire-relief level, but the driver has reversed from de-escalation to re-escalation.

For producers weighing hedging decisions, one number cuts through the diplomatic signals. June's EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook identified a 3.9 million barrel per day structural supply deficit even after cutting 2026 global demand estimates by 1.3 million barrels per day. That deficit narrows slowly regardless of ceasefire status. Supply gaps at that scale set price floors more reliably than single-event risk premiums.