US Crude Output Eases to 13.81 Million Bpd While Twelve-Week Draw Streak Fails to Lift Brent Past $71

US crude oil production eased to 13.81 million barrels per day for the week ending June 26, 2026, per EIA weekly output data published July 1. That is 124,000 barrels per day below the record 13.934 million barrels per day set in April 2026, as reported by Oil Authority. Texas production held at 5.82 million barrels per day, anchored by ExxonMobil's Pioneer acreage in the Midland sub-basin.

Twelve Consecutive Crude Inventory Draws

US commercial crude stockpiles have fallen for 12 consecutive weeks, reaching their lowest level since March 2025, according to Trading Economics. Refineries processed 17.1 million barrels per day during the week ending June 19, per the EIA, running at 96.1% capacity utilization. Gasoline production averaged 9.5 million barrels per day; distillate production rose to 5.2 million barrels per day. Under most market conditions, a streak of that length and refinery throughput would support oil prices.

Why the Draw Streak Has Not Lifted Prices

Brent crude was trading at $70.64 per barrel on Wednesday morning, per OilPrice.com data reflecting an 11-minute-delayed CME and ICE quote, down from the $73.44 close on June 30, the last day of H1 2026 per Oil Authority. The United Arab Emirates restored exports to more than 3.9 million barrels per day following the Strait of Hormuz reopening, pushing total daily Hormuz flows above 10 million barrels. WTI fell to $67.63 per barrel on the same delayed OilPrice.com feed as of Wednesday morning.

The Revenue Gap: $43 Million per Day

The combined price and volume pullback carries a measurable cost. At 13.81 million barrels per day and WTI at $67.63, US operators collectively receive roughly $934 million per day from crude sales. When Oil Authority reported the April production record, WTI stood at $70.14 per barrel; applying that price to record volumes gives roughly $977 million per day. The $43 million per day gap, or about $15.7 billion annualized, reflects both the 124,000-barrel-per-day production pullback and the $2.50 per barrel price decline since the April peak.

Analyst Forecasts and the $24 EIA Miss

The EIA's June Short-Term Energy Outlook projected average Brent at $95 per barrel for full-year 2026, built on the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz would remain effectively closed in the near term. With Brent at $70.64 on July 2, the gap between the EIA's baseline and the actual price has reached $24.36. Morgan Stanley cut its Q3 2026 Brent target to $75 per barrel. Goldman Sachs projects $80 per barrel for Q4. Trading Economics models a Q3 endpoint of $77.56, placing it between the two bank forecasts.

China, Iran, and the Variables That Could Move the Range

Chinese crude imports fell to 5.8 million barrels per day in June, adding demand-side pressure to the price outlook. US-Iran peace negotiations are proceeding, with Tehran demanding maritime control over the Strait of Hormuz while the Trump administration has opposed Iranian nuclear capability. A deal that formalizes Iranian re-entry into the export market would add supply; a collapse in talks could reverse the Hormuz reopening trade. Both scenarios would push Brent further from the current $70-$73 range.

The EIA's next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled for release July 8. If crude draws continue, the streak extends to 13 consecutive weeks. Refinery runs typically peak in July and August, so draw pressure could persist through summer. Whether that tips Brent toward the Morgan Stanley floor of $75 or keeps it below $71 depends primarily on how much of the restored Hormuz supply clears into storage versus immediate refining.