Qatari Mediators Fly to Tehran as Iran Disputes US Deal Timeline: Brent at $87.33, Rystad Warns of 5 Million Bpd Surplus on Hormuz Reopening

Qatari mediators traveled to Tehran on Sunday morning to finalize a memorandum of understanding that President Donald Trump said would be signed that day, according to CBS News live reporting. Iran's foreign ministry publicly contradicted the timeline, stating a formal signing "would not happen today" but remained possible "in the coming days." Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said electronic signing preparations were complete and called finalization "likely expected in the next 24 hours."

Brent crude settled at $87.33 per barrel on ICE on Friday, June 12, down $3.05 or 3.37% on the session. WTI crude settled at $84.88 per barrel on the CME on the same day, down 3.23%. Both benchmarks have fallen more than 25% from their peak above $117 per barrel reached at the height of the Hormuz closure. Friday's moves priced in a high probability of imminent reopening while Iran's public contradiction prevented a steeper decline.

Deal Terms and the Israeli Complication

The draft memorandum would require Iran to dismantle its nuclear enrichment program and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels. In exchange, the United States would lift its naval blockade and ease sanctions on Iran. US forces have redirected 141 vessels since the blockade began and disabled nine ships in total, per CBS News. A complicating factor emerged Saturday when Israeli forces struck a Hezbollah command center in Beirut. Iran has publicly demanded that a Lebanese ceasefire be included in any final agreement, a condition Israel has not accepted.

The current negotiating stage represents a shift from the position reported on June 12, when Trump was actively disputing the 30-day Hormuz pledge Iran had proposed and the two sides held incompatible positions on the draft text. Qatari officials are now inside Tehran working to reconcile those positions, not exchanging messages from Doha. Whether the Israeli strike in Beirut introduces a new blocking condition is the dominant uncertainty heading into the North American trading week.

OPEC Revenue Loss and the Production Restart Problem

OPEC production fell from 31 million barrels per day in February to 20 million barrels per day in April, a decline of 11 million barrels per day, per Rystad Energy. The group's global market share dropped to approximately 22%, its lowest on record. Thirteen million barrels per day of Middle Eastern exports have been lost since the February 28 conflict onset, accumulating $80 billion in forgone revenue through June 12, per Rystad. OPEC+ members raised collective output targets by approximately 600,000 barrels per day between April and June, but Energy Aspects described those increases as "academic" as long as Hormuz remained disrupted.

Oil Authority calculation: that $80 billion in cumulative losses across 105 days of disruption works out to $762 million in forgone export revenue per day for OPEC members. The daily shortfall explains the diplomatic urgency behind Saudi Arabia's support for the Qatari mediation effort. Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon estimates the market could face a surplus of 5 million barrels per day in the months following a full Hormuz reopening. Rystad expects the restart of 11 million barrels per day of shut-in Gulf capacity to take months, not days, limiting the immediate glut risk but capping any sustained price recovery.

Price Forecasts: Surplus Risk Caps Upside at $90 Brent

Goldman Sachs projects Brent at $90 per barrel for Q4 2026 under a base case that assumes Hormuz reopens by end of June. Morgan Stanley holds the same $90 estimate for Q4. Both forecasters see the return of Gulf supply capping Brent below $100 for the remainder of 2026, even as current inventories sit at an eight-year low. The June 12 three-way synthesis of Goldman, EIA, and Morgan Stanley projections showed all three institutions converging at $79 to $80 per barrel for 2027, pricing in full Hormuz normalization before year-end.

Those longer-term forecasts imply a signed Sunday deal produces a sharp near-term price drop followed by a gradual recovery capped well below the crisis highs. The production restart lag Rystad identifies is the key structural support: markets cannot flood overnight when Gulf machinery has been idle for months. That lag gives North American operators a window to plan hedging responses before the full weight of returning Gulf barrels arrives at spot prices.

What to Watch Before Monday's Asian Open

Two developments will determine whether Asian trading opens Monday with a fresh leg lower in crude. First, whether the Qatari delegation produces a signed text from Tehran before end of Sunday. Second, whether Iran's demand for a Lebanese ceasefire causes Israel to block the agreement. The Joint Maritime Information Centre downgraded Hormuz's threat level from "critical" to "severe" on June 7, citing successful transits along the southern Omani coastal route. That improvement signals the US Navy considers the strait navigable even before a formal agreement is in place.

Canadian oil sands producers face additional pressure under any deal scenario that pushes WTI toward $80. The WCS-WTI discount of $11.90 per barrel reported June 12 compresses Alberta producers' netback to $72.98 per barrel before royalties. A WTI decline to $80 would push WCS to $68.10 per barrel at the same differential. ConocoPhillips, operator of the Surmont oil sands project in Alberta, and ExxonMobil subsidiary Imperial Oil both carry material WCS netback exposure.