Williston Drops to 2 Rigs as WTI Tests $70, Compressing Permian Margins Ahead of Baker Hughes Count

CME WTI front-month futures fell to $69.40 per barrel on Thursday June 26, down 3.50% from Wednesday's close of $71.92, per CME Group. WTI has shed roughly 10% this week as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated following the June 17 US-Iran agreement. At $69.40, WTI sits just $14 to $19 per barrel above the $50 to $55 breakeven range that Devon Energy has published for Tier-1 Delaware Basin acreage.

Baker Hughes will release its weekly US rig count on Friday June 27. The most recent Baker Hughes data, from the June 20 count, showed 563 total active US rigs, up 1 week-over-week and up 9 year-over-year. Oil-directed rigs totaled 433, gas-directed rigs reached 122, and the Permian Basin held 256 active rigs, down 1 week-over-week and down 15 year-over-year.

Williston Basin: Down 13 Rigs in a Single Week

The standout figure in the June 20 count was the Williston Basin, home to North Dakota's Bakken shale, where WellDatabase tracking registered just 2 active rigs. That compares to 15 rigs one week earlier and 27 rigs in the same week of 2025, per Energy News Beat data. The 13-rig week-over-week drop is the sharpest single-week basin decline in the June 20 count.

Bakken economics are less favorable than the Permian's best acreage at $69.40 WTI. Operators on second-tier Williston acreage may be running below their economic threshold at current prices, triggering rig releases. Continental Resources, Harold Hamm's private oil company and a dominant Bakken producer, and Chord Energy, the largest dedicated Bakken producer, had not issued public statements on the curtailments as of Thursday morning.

Permian Margin Falls From $60 to $17 Per Barrel Since April

Permian operators remain profitable at $69.40 WTI, but the margin compression since April is severe. The IEA's June Oil Market Report referenced an early April Brent peak with prices $37 per barrel above mid-June levels, placing the April Brent high at roughly $118. At the typical $4 to $5 Brent-WTI differential, WTI reached approximately $113 per barrel in early April.

Devon Energy's published well-economics disclosures show Tier-1 Delaware Basin breakevens at $50 to $55 per barrel WTI. At $113 WTI in April, operators cleared roughly $60 per barrel above the $52.50 midpoint breakeven. At today's $69.40, that operating margin has compressed to roughly $17 per barrel, a decline of $43 per barrel from April's level.

A typical Permian horizontal well producing 1,000 barrels per day in its first month generates roughly $507,000 in operating cash at $69.40 WTI against the $52.50 midpoint breakeven. At April's estimated $113 WTI, the same well generated approximately $1.8 million in its first month. The $1.3 million per month difference compresses the payback period math that governs new-well sanctioning.

Gas Constraints Add a Second Headwind to the Price Squeeze

Price pressure is not the only challenge bearing down on Permian operators. Oil Authority previously reported that gas takeaway constraints are capping Permian crude output at 6.2 million barrels per day until the Blackcomb Pipeline reaches its Q3 2026 target start date. That constraint forces gas curtailment or flaring at some wells, reducing overall well economics even when WTI was at $113.

At $69.40 WTI, the gas constraint and the price compression are now compounding. Operators who might have tolerated gas curtailment costs at $113 WTI now face lower margin cover for the same curtailment overhead. The June 20 Baker Hughes count, with the Permian already down 15 rigs year-over-year, may be the early signal of that combined pressure.

Friday's Baker Hughes count will be the first to reflect whether operators responded to this week's price drop with immediate rig releases or chose to hold activity. The Williston data suggests some producers are not waiting. Observers will watch whether the Permian total falls below 255 rigs, which would be the lowest count since the conflict-era drilling expansion began.