WTI Crude Rebounds to $70 as US-Iran Doha Peace Talks Pause Hormuz Strikes

WTI crude oil rose $1.30 per barrel to $70.53 on Monday, rebounding from a four-month low. The United States and Iran agreed to suspend direct military strikes ahead of peace negotiations in Doha, Qatar, scheduled for Tuesday. Brent crude gained $0.79 to $72.83 per barrel. OilPrice.com reported both prices at approximately 2:00 PM MT on June 29, 2026.

The diplomatic pause follows a weekend escalation. On June 27, an Iranian drone struck the Panama-flagged tanker M/T Kiku, which was transiting the strait with more than two million barrels of crude oil. The United States military responded with strikes on Iranian targets, the second major exchange since a memorandum of understanding signed June 17 established a 60-day ceasefire.

Transit Traffic Has Fallen 88 Percent From Prewar Levels

Tanker traffic through the strait fell to 12 vessels on the day of the June 27 strike, down from more than 100 ships per day before the crisis began in late February. Oil Authority calculates that transit volume has dropped by at least 88% from prewar levels. Before the crisis, the strait handled approximately 17 to 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products, roughly 20% of global seaborne oil trade.

Brent Has Fallen 42 Percent From Its March Peak of $126 Per Barrel

Brent crude reached $126 per barrel on March 8, 2026, the highest level since 2008. Iran formally announced the strait's closure after the US-Israeli Operation Epic Fury launched on February 28. Prices have since fallen 42% as diplomatic progress accumulated, including the June 17 memorandum signed by US President Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian. The M/T Kiku strike added a geopolitical risk premium that has since partly unwound as Tuesday's Doha talks approach.

Timeline of the 2026 Hormuz Crisis

The crisis began February 28, 2026, when US-Israeli airstrikes triggered Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to attack tankers and formally close the strait. A ceasefire reached April 8 deteriorated within days, followed by the April 13 start of US Navy port blockades of Iranian facilities. Operation Project Freedom, a US Navy escort program protecting allied vessels, launched May 4.

Iran claimed on June 20 that Israeli actions had voided the memorandum and resumed the waterway's closure. The M/T Kiku drone strike on June 27 was the most recent incident, damaging the vessel but causing no crew casualties. Tuesday's Doha session is the first formal negotiating round since the June 17 memorandum was signed.

Gulf Producers Race to Load Cargoes During Open Windows

Producers from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq are accelerating cargo loading during periods when the strait remains passable. OilPrice.com reported Monday that shippers across the Gulf are racing to load oil and LNG before any renewed closure. A sustained blockade would cut off an estimated 17 to 20 million barrels per day of crude oil exports from the region.

US natural gas markets face no direct Hormuz supply disruption, as American LNG exports travel from Gulf Coast terminals in the opposite direction. European and Asian buyers of Qatari LNG, which transits Hormuz, faced spot price spikes during the March closure. JKM, the Asian LNG benchmark, reached a seasonal high during that peak before easing as alternative supplies entered the market.