Baker Hughes: 425 US Oil Rigs, 138 Canadian as Goldman Sachs Warns Record 8.7 MMbpd Inventory Draw

North American drilling activity held firm in the week ending May 22, 2026. Baker Hughes reported 558 total active rigs in the United States, with 425 targeting oil and 125 targeting gas. The US oil count rose 10 rigs from the prior week. Canada added 14 rigs to reach 138, lifting the North American combined total to 696, per Baker Hughes data cited by Rigzone on May 25.

Goldman Sachs Flags Record Inventory Drain

Goldman Sachs released an oil market note on May 23 reporting that global crude inventories are drawing at 8.7 million barrels per day. The bank described that draw rate as the highest ever recorded. April's depletion pace ran at double the rate observed through the end of March. Global stocks stood at 101 days of expected demand, the lowest level in nearly eight years, according to Goldman.

WTI Settlement and WCS Pressure on Alberta Producers

WTI crude settled at $96.60 per barrel on Friday's CME close, per Investing.com. The WCS blend at Hardisty carried a $14.90 to $16.25 per barrel discount to WTI as of mid-April 2026, according to the BOE Report. At that spread, WCS was tracking near $80 to $82 per barrel at Friday's close. WTI then fell to $90.30 on Monday as Washington and Tehran announced progress on an Iran agreement, per Oil Authority's earlier coverage.

Alberta oil sands output ran at 3.5 million barrels per day in 2025, representing 57 percent of Canada's crude production, per the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. A WTI decline of $6.60 per barrel broadly flows through to WCS if the quality-and-transportation discount holds steady. That produces a sector-level revenue reduction of roughly $23 million per day, or about $8.4 billion annualized, before producer hedges. At a CAD/USD exchange rate of 1.38, the annualized impact translates to $11.6 billion per year in Canadian dollars for unhedged barrels.

Trans Mountain Capacity Provides a Structural Floor

Trans Mountain's expanded pipeline, commissioned in May 2024 at 890,000 barrels per day of capacity, averaged roughly 380,000 barrels per day in its first year of expanded operation, per OilPrice.com. That 43 percent utilization rate means tidewater access remains available for incremental Alberta barrels, limiting how far the WCS discount can widen. Canada's government called the pipeline strategically critical, citing rising Asian appetite for Canadian crude as Hormuz disruptions reduce Middle Eastern supply alternatives.

Goldman and Wood Mackenzie Diverge by $110 Per Barrel on Brent

Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $90 per barrel and WTI to $83 per barrel in late April, premised on the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal flows by end of June. Wood Mackenzie published a three-scenario analysis on May 21. In the quick-peace case, Brent falls to $80 per barrel by year-end 2026 and to $65 in 2027. In the extended-disruption case, Brent could approach $200 per barrel, with diesel and jet fuel nearing $300. The spread between Goldman's base case and Wood Mackenzie's stress scenario stands at $110 per barrel, a gap that shapes every long-cycle drilling decision now being committed.

Permian and Eagle Ford Lead US Basin Activity

The Permian Basin added 4 rigs in the week to reach 246 active units, per Baker Hughes data cited by Rigzone. Eagle Ford gained 2 rigs; Cana Woodford gained 2 as well. US hydraulic fracturing spreads rose 5 to 189 active units, per OilPrice.com rig count data. US crude production stood at 13.70 million barrels per day as of May 15, per the same source.

Canadian rig activity is 24 units higher year-on-year as of the May 22 count, while US rigs fell 8 from May 2025. The contrast reflects different capital priorities across the border. Suncor Energy's Q1 2026 record production of 875,200 barrels per day illustrates the Canadian oil sands expansion drive, as covered in this outlet's Suncor Q1 earnings analysis. Imperial Oil, ExxonMobil's Canadian subsidiary and a major Kearl oil sands operator, follows the same capacity-expansion path as its parent pursues unconventional growth in Canada.