US Rig Count Holds at 603 as Permian Slips to 272 and Canada Drops 5 to 217

The US rig count held at 603 in the week to October 16, Baker Hughes data showed, as the Permian Basin lost two rigs and Canada dropped five. The flat total follows a five-rig gain a week earlier that took drilling activity to its highest level since May 2024. Crude prices kept climbing through the week, so the pause is worth reading closely.

Permian slips from its four-month high

The Permian fell by two to 272 rigs, according to the Baker Hughes count republished by Oil & Gas 360. A week earlier the basin stood at 274, the highest since June 2025, as Reuters reported via the BOE Report. Our October 9 rig count coverage tracked that peak.

Haynesville dropped one rig to 56 and Arkoma Woodford fell to zero. Barnett and Granite Wash each added one, reaching 2 and 21. Eagle Ford held at 49, Williston at 35, Marcellus at 23 and the DJ Basin at 10.

Canada lost five rigs and ended the week at 217, the same Baker Hughes table shows. Canadian operators sell crude in US dollars, so higher benchmark prices lift Canadian-dollar revenue even when drilling slows.

Prices rose while the count stalled

WTI crude settled at $97.97 per barrel on Thursday's NYMEX close, up 3.03%, and Brent settled at $105.92 per barrel on ICE, down 0.13%, Emirates News Agency reported. In RTÉ's 17:56 update on Friday, Brent traded at $108.80 per barrel, up 2.7%, and WTI at $100.20, up 2.3%.

For the week, RTÉ put Brent up 1.2% and WTI up 6.5%. Friday's final settlements were not available in the sources we reviewed.

Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen described a market caught between persistent supply disruption risks in the Middle East and other forces. Kpler analysts said intensified Iranian attacks drove Gulf crude flows sharply lower and expect an uneven recovery without a political deal.

What is different from last week

A week ago, rigs rose five to 603 and the Permian rose four. This week the total did not move and the Permian reversed half of that gain. Operators added activity for four of the past five weeks, then paused on the day crude pushed back toward $109.

Rig counts lag price signals by weeks, because operators contract rigs and schedule pads well ahead of spud dates. One flat week does not reverse the trend. It does show that a 6.5% weekly WTI gain did not translate into immediate rig additions.

Where the 603 rigs sit

The Permian holds 272 of 603 US rigs, or 45.1% of the national count. Add Eagle Ford, Williston, the DJ Basin and Haynesville, and the five basins hold 422 rigs, or 70.0%. Activity is concentrated, so a handful of operators in a few basins sets the national trend.

Context matters here. Reuters noted that the rig count fell 20% in 2023, 5% in 2024 and 7% in 2025, as producers favoured shareholder returns and debt reduction. The October 9 total stood 56 rigs, or 10%, above a year earlier.

Output outlook

The US Energy Information Administration projects crude output rising from a record 13.7 million barrels per day in 2025 to 13.9 million in 2026. It also projects natural gas output climbing from 107.6 billion cubic feet per day to 112.2 billion, per the Reuters report. Both forecasts assume rig activity does not fall back.

Haynesville's one-rig loss matters for that gas forecast. The basin supplies feedgas to Gulf Coast LNG terminals, so sustained declines would test the EIA's 112.2 billion cubic feet per day figure. One rig is not a trend, and the count there stood at 57 a week earlier.