Brent Settles at $99.58 as Doha Talks Reverse Intraday Gains; Goldman Forecasts Q4 at $90, Wood Mackenzie Warns of $200

Brent crude settled at $99.58 per barrel on Tuesday's ICE close, down $3.96 or 3.82 percent from Monday's finish. WTI crude settled at $93.89 per barrel on the CME close, down $2.71 or 2.81 percent. Both benchmarks reversed sharp intraday gains as Doha ceasefire framework talks outweighed Iran's retaliation warning following US strikes near Bandar Abbas on May 25.

Intraday Reversal Defines the Session

Brent touched $100.20 per barrel at 9:15 a.m. ET, per Fortune, as Iran's IRGC threatened retaliation for US Central Command strikes targeting missile sites and mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. Markets reversed through the North American session as Doha MOU negotiations gained traction. Iran's Foreign Ministry, while formally accusing Washington of a "clear ceasefire violation," acknowledged "progress" on the underlying issues. Iran's President Pezeshkian stated on May 24 that Tehran is "ready to assure to the world that it is not pursuing nuclear weapons," the most direct disavowal of nuclear ambitions since the conflict began in February.

The Brent-WTI spread closed at $5.69 per barrel Tuesday. At the crisis apex in mid-April, when Brent spiked to $126 per barrel, that spread exceeded $23 per barrel. A spread of $5.69 falls within the pre-crisis historical norm of $3 to $5 per barrel, indicating markets have priced out most of the Hormuz supply risk. Our midday article captured the intraday spike before the reversal extended through the close.

Goldman at $90, Morgan Stanley at $110, Wood Mackenzie at $200

Goldman Sachs commodity analyst Daan Struyven issued the most recent major note on April 26 to 29, raising the Q4 2026 Brent target to $90 per barrel and the Q4 WTI target to $83 per barrel. The Goldman base case assumes Hormuz reopens by end-June, aligning with the Doha framework timeline. A Goldman severe risk scenario targets Brent at $115 per barrel in Q4 if the ceasefire fails and persistent disruptions exceed two million barrels per day. Goldman also raised its Canadian Natural Resources USD price target to $49 from $37, citing revised Middle East disruption estimates.

Morgan Stanley projects Q2 2026 Brent at $110 per barrel and Q3 Brent at $100 per barrel, diverging from Goldman on the normalization timeline. Wood Mackenzie published three scenarios on May 20: Quick Peace forecasting Brent at $80 per barrel by year-end 2026, Summer Settlement with elevated prices through Q3, and Extended Disruption approaching $200 per barrel by end-2026. Head of Economics Peter Martin stated that extended disruption "would become far more than an energy crisis." RBC Capital Markets argued in a May 18 note that Hormuz risks remain "still underpriced," calling a June grand reopening unlikely.

J.P. Morgan analyst Natasha Kaneva projects full-year 2026 Brent at $96 per barrel and WTI at $89 per barrel. The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (May 12) forecasts a full-year 2026 Brent average of $95 per barrel. Both figures fall between Goldman's reopening base case and the Morgan Stanley outlook, reflecting genuine uncertainty about the Doha timeline. Goldman's end-June reopening target is now fewer than five weeks away.

WCS Operators Face $15 Billion in Scenario-Dependent Revenue Exposure

Western Canadian Select traded at $15.85 per barrel below WTI as of May 14, per BOE Report and EnergyNow.ca data. At Tuesday's WTI settlement of $93.89 per barrel, that differential implies WCS at $78 per barrel. Under Goldman's Q4 WTI target of $83 per barrel, implied WCS falls to $67 per barrel, an $11 per barrel reduction from Tuesday's level.

Alberta's oil sands sector produces 3.8 million barrels per day, per Alberta Energy Regulator supply data. Each dollar per barrel of WCS movement translates to $1.4 billion USD in annualized sector revenue. The Goldman reopening scenario implies $15 billion USD per year less in Alberta oil sands revenue than Tuesday's WCS pricing suggests.

Suncor Energy posted a Q1 upstream record of 875,200 barrels per day and Cenovus Energy hit 972,100 BOE per day in Q1. Both companies carry hedging programs through at least Q2, per their MD&A filings, limiting near-term WCS downside exposure. Goldman's raised CNQ USD price target of $49 per share signals that the bank views the Goldman reopening scenario as manageable for integrated Canadian producers.

Archive: When $90 Was the Floor, Not the Target

When WTI fell to $90.30 per barrel on initial US-Iran deal signals, Oil Authority reported the move as a 6 percent daily decline driven by Hormuz deal optimism. WTI subsequently recovered to the $93 to $96 range as renewed military action complicated negotiations. Goldman's Q4 WTI target of $83 per barrel would represent a new post-crisis low, 8 percent below that deal-signal trough. The market has come nearly full circle, with Goldman now forecasting a landing point that undercuts the first deal-floor by $7 per barrel.

Henry Hub Flat as European TTF Sustains LNG Export Arbitrage

Henry Hub natural gas settled at $2.907 per MMBtu on May 22, per AGA market indicators. US working gas in storage held at 2.3 trillion cubic feet as of May 15, 6.5 percent above the five-year average. European TTF gas prices hit 47.56 euros per megawatt-hour on May 25, per ICE data cited in Oil Authority's prior-day reporting, sustaining a wide arbitrage in favor of US LNG exports. The EIA May STEO projects a full-year 2026 Henry Hub average of $3.50 per MMBtu, implying a domestic price recovery in H2.