Brent Crude Settles at $71.99 as Hormuz Traffic Rebounds, Completing Full Reversal of Iran War Premium

Brent crude settled at $71.99 per barrel on Friday June 27's ICE Futures Europe close, down 4.34% on the day and the lowest settlement since February 27, 2026. West Texas Intermediate fell 3.74% to $69.23 per barrel on Nymex. Those were the lowest closes for both benchmarks since before the Iran-Hormuz conflict escalated into a full shipping disruption. Both contracts have shed approximately 22% from their peak levels reached in late May and early June.

The settlement followed weeks of accelerating tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura terminal, one of the world's largest crude export facilities, resumed loading operations after disruption during the conflict. Qatar announced its first crude cargo tenders since the conflict began, scheduling July and August shipments from Ras Laffan. Eight LNG tankers were positioned at Ras Laffan as of last week, signaling a return to normal loading patterns.

A $20-Per-Barrel War Premium, Now Fully Reversed

At their month-ago peak, Brent crude prices reached approximately $92 per barrel, based on the 21.96% monthly decline to Friday's $71.99 close. That difference implies roughly a $20 per barrel Iran war premium that accumulated as the Hormuz crisis suppressed tanker traffic. At the crisis peak, the strait was blocking an estimated 10 million barrels per day of seaborne oil, representing more than 90% of normal traffic volumes through the waterway, per shipping data reported by Oilprice.com.

Saudi Arabia produces roughly 9 million barrels per day, making it the most exposed major producer to per-barrel price swings. Each dollar decline in Brent represents approximately $9 million per day in realised revenue impact for Saudi Aramco at that production level. The full $20 per barrel reversal from crisis peak translates to roughly $180 million per day in foregone crisis-level revenues for Saudi Arabia alone. The move was rapid: the ceasefire was announced June 15, giving markets two weeks to price in the supply recovery.

Sanctions Ceiling Limits the Full Oil Supply Recovery

The US-Iran ceasefire is a 60-day framework signed in Switzerland on June 15, leaving the Iranian nuclear weapons issue open for subsequent negotiations. The United States included no immediate sanctions relief for Iran; the Trump administration stated that any easing would be 'tied to Iranian behavior and compliance.' Iran previously exported over one million barrels per day to China before the conflict. Full restoration of those barrels depends on negotiation phases that have not yet begun.

Mine clearance operations in the strait are ongoing, and war-risk insurance premiums have not returned to pre-conflict levels. Analysts estimated energy flows could reach 80% of pre-war levels by September, a ceiling that implies sustained rather than immediate full recovery. That partial recovery floor provides some price support, limiting further downside absent a breakdown of the ceasefire or new sanctions relief for Iran.

Archive: February 27 Was the Last Time Brent Traded Here

Brent settled at nearly the same level on February 27, 2026, before the Hormuz crisis began escalating. Between late May and mid-June, the contract added approximately $20 per barrel in war risk premium as tanker traffic through Hormuz collapsed by more than 90%. The post-ceasefire price collapse has fully reversed that premium in roughly 12 trading days. Prices are now at the level that represented the pre-conflict market baseline.

Iraq's government separately floated plans this week to exit OPEC and raise production independently of the group's quota framework. An OPEC exit would remove Baghdad from compliance requirements and could release several hundred thousand barrels per day of additional supply, adding further downward pressure to a market already absorbing the Hormuz recovery. Baghdad is simultaneously hosting European Union energy talks on potential trade cooperation agreements.