EIA Reports 3.06 Million Barrel U.S. Crude Draw as Exports Fall 1.13 Million Bpd and Output Drops 410,000 Bpd

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell 3.06 million barrels to 412.5 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 16, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday. It was the third consecutive weekly decline. Crude exports fell 1.13 million barrels per day to 3.44 million, and domestic production dropped 410,000 barrels per day to 13.27 million.

EIA Puts U.S. Commercial Crude Stocks at 412.5 Million Barrels

The EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report put commercial crude stocks at 412.517 million barrels, down from 415.577 million a week earlier and from 427.320 million on Sept. 25. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell 300,000 barrels to 282.683 million. Total stocks of crude and petroleum products, including the reserve, fell 8.75 million barrels to 1.498 billion.

Refiners processed 16.649 million barrels per day of crude, up 34,000 from the prior week, and utilization was 93.4% of operable capacity, compared with 93.5% a week earlier. The EIA put commercial crude stocks at 25.0 days of supply, down from 25.1 days.

U.S. Crude Exports Fall to 3.44 Million Bpd as Net Imports Rise

Crude imports fell 291,000 barrels per day to 5.758 million, while exports fell 1.128 million barrels per day to 3.442 million. Net crude imports therefore rose to 2.316 million barrels per day from 1.479 million, Oil Authority calculations from EIA data. Total exports of crude and products fell to 10.849 million barrels per day from 11.944 million.

The production drop matters for the balance. A 410,000 barrel per day decline equals about 2.87 million barrels over a seven-day week, close to the size of the crude draw. Weekly production figures are estimates that the EIA revises, so the comparison shows scale rather than cause.

U.S. Crude Stocks Down 14.8 Million Barrels Since Sept. 25

Commercial crude stocks have fallen 14.8 million barrels since Sept. 25, Oil Authority calculations from EIA data, including an 8.56 million barrel draw in the week ended Oct. 9. Production has eased in each of the past two weeks, from 13.979 million barrels per day in the week ended Oct. 2 to 13.269 million, while crude exports swung from 4.765 million to 3.442 million over the same period. The EIA forecasts U.S. crude production at 13.9 million barrels per day for 2026 and 14.3 million for 2027, so the latest weekly estimate sits below the annual forecast.

U.S. Gasoline Stocks Fall 2.95 Million Barrels; Distillates Rise 1.68 Million

Motor gasoline inventories fell 2.95 million barrels to 205.31 million. Distillate fuel inventories rose 1.68 million barrels to 104.29 million, the first increase in three weeks, lifting distillate days of supply to 26.7 from 25.8. Distillate production averaged 5.232 million barrels per day, up from 5.189 million.

The EIA said in its October Short-Term Energy Outlook that East Coast distillate inventories were 32% below their five-year average and that it expects them to remain 20% to 30% below that average through the winter. Our report on the Russian diesel license covers federal steps aimed at that market.

U.S. Crude Imports From Canada Rise to 3.90 Million Bpd

U.S. crude imports from Canada rose to 3.902 million barrels per day in the week ended Oct. 16 from 3.751 million, according to the EIA's imports by country data. Canada supplied about two-thirds of total U.S. crude imports for the week. Imports from Venezuela rose to 571,000 barrels per day from 455,000, and imports from Saudi Arabia fell to 176,000 from 268,000.

Alberta Treasury Board and Finance reported the WTI-WCS differential at US$24.96 on Oct. 15. Higher U.S. demand for Canadian barrels has not narrowed that discount while pipelines run near capacity, as covered in our WCS report.

Brent Settles at $108.82 After NYMEX November WTI Expiry

ICE Brent December futures settled at $108.82 per barrel on Oct. 21, up 3 cents. The EIA's WTI spot price at Cushing was $107.89 on Oct. 20, after the November NYMEX contract expired that day. The EIA forecasts Brent spot at $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

EIA Report on Oct. 28 and Baker Hughes, Alberta Data on Oct. 23

The EIA's next weekly report is due on Oct. 28. Baker Hughes publishes its rig count on Oct. 23, and Alberta's weekly indicators report, also due Oct. 23, will update the WCS differential.