WCS Discount Widens to US$24.96, 2.2 Times the AER's 2025 Average, as Trans Mountain Runs Near Capacity

The discount on Western Canada Select widened to US$24.96 per barrel below WTI on Oct. 15, according to Alberta Treasury Board and Finance, up from US$24.69 a week earlier. That is 2.2 times the Alberta Energy Regulator's 2025 average differential of US$11.14 and well above the US$15.94 average for the province's fiscal year to date.

Alberta Puts WCS Near US$73 With a US$24.96 Discount

Alberta reported front-month WTI at US$97.97 per barrel on Oct. 15, up US$6.48 over the week, which implies a WCS price near US$73.01. The province's weekly indicators put the fiscal-year-to-date averages at US$89.39 for WTI and US$15.94 for the differential, so the October discount is running well ahead of the average since April.

The AER said in its Alberta Energy Outlook, updated in September, that the differential narrowed to US$11.14 in 2025 from US$14.73 in 2024, reflecting the additional takeaway capacity of the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline. It expects the differential to widen modestly in 2026 on record oil sands production and the filling of Trans Mountain, and does not expect further widening beyond 2026 as more pipeline capacity comes online.

Wider WCS Discount Costs US$13.82 Million a Day per Million Bpd

The Oct. 15 discount is US$13.82 per barrel wider than the 2025 average. Every 1 million barrels per day of WCS-priced crude therefore realizes about US$13.82 million less per day than it would at last year's spread, or about US$5.0 billion over a full year if sustained, Oil Authority calculations. Realized discounts for individual producers depend on contract terms, quality and marketing arrangements, and producers with firm pipeline space can realize more than the Hardisty benchmark implies.

CER Data Show Trans Mountain at 96.2% of Capacity

Canada Energy Regulator data show the Trans Mountain system moved about 866,000 barrels per day in June 2026, or 96.2% of available capacity, compared with about 702,000 barrels per day and 78.6% a year earlier. In April 2026, utilization reached 98.8%. With the main West Coast outlet close to full, incremental barrels must find room on lines to the United States.

Producers are lining up more space. Tamarack Valley Energy said in its Sept. 8 merger release that it has secured 25,000 barrels per day of Trans Mountain service expected to begin in the first quarter of 2027, subject to completion of a drag reducing agent expansion, plus 10,000 barrels per day on the proposed South Bow Prairie Connector. Our Tamarack and Headwater report covers those terms.

U.S. Imports 3.75 Million Bpd From Canada and 455,000 From Venezuela

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported crude imports from Canada of 3.75 million barrels per day for the week ended Oct. 9 and imports from Venezuela of 455,000 barrels per day, which compete for the same heavy crude refiners. The EIA said in its October Short-Term Energy Outlook that tanker rates reached record levels in September on higher insurance costs and longer routes, adding to delivered crude costs for refiners and to the cost of moving Canadian barrels beyond the Gulf Coast.

AER Forecasts WCS at US$71 in 2026; Alberta Forecasts a US$14.80 Discount

The AER forecasts WCS at US$71.00 per barrel in 2026, US$60.00 in 2027 and US$57.00 in 2028. The implied Oct. 15 price of about US$73.01 is close to the 2026 forecast, because a higher WTI price has offset most of the wider discount. In its first-quarter fiscal update in August, Alberta forecast the differential to average US$14.80 per barrel in 2026-27, US$1.80 higher than assumed in the budget. The year-to-date average of US$15.94 is already running above that revised forecast, and the Oct. 15 reading is about 1.7 times it, Oil Authority calculations.

Baker Hughes Counts 154 Rigs in Alberta and 217 in Canada

Baker Hughes counted 154 active rigs in Alberta for the week ended Oct. 16 and 217 across Canada. Our rig count report has the U.S. comparison, and our report on AER's oil sands outlook covers the production forecast that drives the regulator's view of pipeline use.

Alberta Indicators on Oct. 23 and Monthly CER Throughput Data

Alberta's next weekly indicators report is due on Oct. 23 and will show whether the differential keeps widening. The CER's monthly throughput data will show whether Trans Mountain utilization stays near full through the summer and autumn months.