Henry Hub Gains 1.5 Percent as TTF Falls 4 Percent; US LNG Exports Hit 18.4 Bcf Per Day as EIA Inventory Data Shifts to Thursday

CME Henry Hub natural gas front-month futures were trading at $3.06 per MMBtu on Wednesday, up 1.74 percent from Tuesday's close, per TradingEconomics. ICE TTF Dutch natural gas fell to EUR 45.72 per MWh, a decline of 4.0 percent on the day, per TradingEconomics. Platts JKM Asian LNG retreated to $18.43 per MMBtu, down 2.1 percent, per OilPrice.com data.

Why Henry Hub Is Climbing While TTF and JKM Fall

US natural gas markets are partially insulated from the Middle East supply shock driving TTF and JKM lower. The primary bearish driver for European and Asian gas today is the same Iran-Hormuz deal optimism pushing crude oil down 4 percent. Henry Hub, priced at Louisiana's Henry Hub pipeline junction, responds primarily to domestic US supply and demand and the near-term volume of US LNG exports.

US LNG export flows reached 18.4 billion cubic feet per day this week, a gain of roughly 9 percent week-over-week, per EIA natural gas weekly data. That surge reflects maintenance completions at several US Gulf Coast liquefaction facilities, which had reduced throughput in early May. Lower 48 dry gas production averaged 109.4 billion cubic feet per day in May, slightly below April's 109.8 billion cubic feet per day, tightening the domestic balance at the margin.

The Henry Hub-TTF Spread: $11.41 Per MMBtu, $214 Million Per Day

Converting TTF to comparable US units at EUR 45.72 per megawatt-hour and approximately $1.08 per euro, TTF translates to roughly $14.47 per MMBtu. Henry Hub at $3.06 per MMBtu places the spread at approximately $11.41 per MMBtu. That differential is the gross price gap available to shippers moving Henry Hub-priced gas to European buyers.

At 18.4 billion cubic feet per day of US LNG exports, that volume converts to roughly 18.77 million MMBtu per day. At the $11.41 per MMBtu spread, the gross price differential between US gas production and European delivery is approximately $214 million per day. Liquefaction costs at US terminals run roughly $2 to $3 per MMBtu, and Atlantic shipping adds approximately $2 per MMBtu, leaving a net economic spread of around $6 to $7 per MMBtu for LNG shippers. Cheniere Energy, which operates Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi LNG terminals representing roughly two-thirds of US export capacity, benefits directly from spreads at these levels.

Why TTF Is Falling Despite the QatarEnergy August Force Majeure

QatarEnergy extended its LNG force majeure through mid-August 2026, announced Tuesday, meaning Qatar cannot guarantee LNG delivery commitments due to the Hormuz closure. When that extension was reported, TTF was at EUR 47.56 per MWh, per Investing.com. Wednesday's EUR 45.72 represents a further EUR 1.84 per MWh decline as Iran deal optimism overrides near-term supply signals.

European natural gas storage sits at approximately 38 percent capacity, compared to the seasonal five-year average of roughly 50 percent, per TradingEconomics. That 12-point deficit is the structural floor that has kept TTF elevated throughout the spring. If Hormuz reopens and QatarEnergy resumes deliveries, European storage fills faster and TTF could retreat further toward the EUR 35 to EUR 38 range.

EIA Report Shifts to Thursday on Memorial Day

The US Energy Information Administration shifted this week's Weekly Petroleum Status Report from its usual Wednesday release to Thursday May 28 at 12:00 PM ET, due to the federal Memorial Day holiday on Monday May 25, per EIA.gov. The report will cover the week ending May 22, 2026. Analysts will watch whether distillate stocks show any recovery and whether the 14-week streak of gasoline draws extends to 15 consecutive weeks.

Distillate fuel oil stocks remain approximately 11 percent below the five-year seasonal average, making them the tightest major product segment in the US inventory picture, per TradingEconomics aggregation of EIA data. Gasoline stocks have now drawn for 14 consecutive weeks and also sit below the five-year average. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve stood at approximately 374.2 million barrels as of the most recent EIA reading, the lowest level since July 2024, following the IEA's coordinated emergency release of 400 million barrels across member states during the Hormuz crisis.

Long-Term LNG Contracts Signal Structural Demand for the Spread

A sustained Henry Hub-TTF spread above $10 per MMBtu provides the economics needed for new North American LNG projects to advance to final investment decision. The 20-year Canada-Germany LNG deal signed Tuesday, which commits 1 million tonnes per year from British Columbia's Ksi Lisims terminal to Germany's SEFE, was structured while TTF remained elevated and Hormuz demonstrated the cost of geographic concentration. That contract represents precisely the type of long-term off-take agreement that underpins new liquefaction investment.

A Hormuz reopening would reduce the acute European supply crisis and put downward pressure on TTF. Narrowing the Henry Hub-TTF spread below $8 per MMBtu would erode the economic incentive for new LNG project approvals and could slow final investment decisions that depend on current market conditions. Whether the spread holds above $10 depends largely on how quickly and completely Hormuz transit resumes, a variable that the proposed 60-day ceasefire extension alone cannot guarantee.