Libya NOC Targets 2 Million Bpd Output Record as ENI Mellitah Gas Resumes and Waha Concession Expands

Libya's National Oil Corporation confirmed its current production stands at 1.4 million barrels per day, with a target of 2 to 3 million barrels per day over the coming years. Reaching that level by the early 2030s would mark a production record for Libya in the modern era. European and Asian buyers are paying close attention. With the Strait of Hormuz facing extended disruptions, North African supply has gained strategic importance as an alternative source for refiners who previously depended on Middle Eastern crude.

A Production Level Libya Has Never Reached

Libya's oil output peaked near 1.8 million barrels per day in 2006, its highest level before the 2011 civil war. The NOC set an earlier target of 2 million bpd for 2008, a goal deferred by more than 17 years of conflict and political fragmentation. The 2011 uprising collapsed production to near zero. Recovery has been slow, punctuated by pipeline blockades, facility seizures, and armed standoffs at export terminals. Current output of 1.4 million bpd, the highest sustained level since before the civil war, still leaves Libya 600,000 bpd short of its stated ambition.

ENI Mellitah Complex: Gas Shutdown and Same-Day Restoration

Mellitah Oil and Gas B.V. is the 50/50 joint venture between Italian major ENI and Libya's NOC, operating the Mellitah industrial complex in northwestern Libya. On July 28, 2026, the NOC issued a statement citing serious concern about a breach and closure at the Mellitah facility. Gas production resumed the same day, per a second NOC release. The Greenstream pipeline, running from Mellitah to Gela in Sicily, supplies Italian households and industries with Libyan gas. On July 30, Mellitah-operated teams completed well maintenance at Abu Attifel field and doubled the production rate at one well.

Waha Concession: ConocoPhillips and a Sirte Basin Footprint

ConocoPhillips holds a 16.33% stake in Waha Oil Company, a joint venture that operates fields across the Sirte Basin with aggregate capacity near 350,000 barrels per day. Marathon Oil Corporation and Amerada Hess held additional shares in the same concession. Hess's position transferred to Chevron Corporation following the 2024 acquisition. TotalEnergies and Repsol also hold Murzuq Basin positions through separate operating agreements with the NOC. These partnerships give Libya's NOC access to global technical expertise and downstream market connections that the country would struggle to replicate independently.

Revenue Calculation: What 2 Million Bpd Means for Libya's Fiscal Position

Brent crude settled at $83.55 per barrel in Friday's ICE close, per data tracked by OilPrice.com. At that price, reaching 2 million bpd from today's 1.4 million bpd would add 600,000 barrels per day to Libya's export stream. That increment represents roughly $50.1 million per day in additional export revenue, or $18.3 billion annualized. Libya's government relies on hydrocarbons for more than 95% of fiscal revenue. At current Brent, the gap between 1.4 million bpd and 2 million bpd is effectively the difference between deficit and surplus for Tripoli's budget planners.

Political Stability as the Variable Neither NOC Nor IOC Controls

Libya's production record has been defined less by geology than by politics. The country operates under two rival administrations: the Government of National Unity in Tripoli and the House of Representatives based in Benghazi. Disputes between the two have triggered pipeline blockades and export terminal closures at least four times since 2021. The Mellitah closure on July 28 is the latest example. Reaching 2 million bpd requires sustained security for field workers, freedom from politically motivated shutdowns, and long-term capital commitments from IOC partners who have withdrawn operations during prior periods of unrest.