QatarEnergy Signs 7 Mtpa of US LNG With Cheniere and Woodside as Fitch Sees Sub-Saharan Africa Exports Nearly Tripling

QatarEnergy signed two long-term US LNG deals in October totaling 7 million tonnes per year, which Oilprice.com reports makes it the largest buyer of US LNG. The supply Iran's war removed from the market dwarfs that volume. Meanwhile, Fitch sees Sub-Saharan Africa's LNG exports nearly tripling by 2034.

The Two Qatar Contracts

Cheniere's October 22 release describes 4 million tonnes per year of free-on-board supply, split evenly between Sabine Pass Liquefaction and Corpus Christi Liquefaction. Deliveries start in the early 2030s and run through 2054. One million tonnes of the Sabine Pass volume depends on a positive final investment decision on the first phase of the Sabine Pass expansion.

Pricing is indexed to Henry Hub plus a fixed fee, according to Cheniere. Woodside Energy supplies another 3 million tonnes per year from the Louisiana LNG project, free-on-board, starting in 2030 for 20 years, per Oilprice.com. QatarEnergy is buying because it is losing. Iranian missile attacks in March knocked out 17% of Qatar's export capacity, which the company valued at about $20 billion in annual revenue. Force majeure on deliveries to Asia and Europe now runs through the end of December.

How Much Does 7 Mtpa Actually Cover?

The IEA estimates the war cost about 60 billion cubic meters of LNG supply in the eight months to October, per Oilprice.com's summary of its report. That annualizes to 90 billion cubic meters. Using the standard conversion of 1.36 billion cubic meters per million tonnes, the 7 Mtpa Qatar package equals 9.5 billion cubic meters a year, or 10.6% of the annualized loss.

The timing is the larger gap. Qatari volumes start in 2030 and the early 2030s, while the IEA warns the gas crunch could last well into 2027. Contracts signed now answer the 2030s, not this winter.

JKM topped $31 per MMBtu in October and briefly passed $33, up from just over $9 in January, per the IEA data cited by Oilprice.com. US natural gas futures show 2.924 on Oilprice.com's ticker, so the gap is $28.08 before liquefaction fees and shipping. Across 7 Mtpa, or 364 million MMBtu at 52 MMBtu per tonne, that gap totals $10.2 billion a year at October prices. Henry Hub-linked contracts will not capture spot spreads, but the figure shows why sellers want long-term volumes.

Africa's Wave Arrives After the Crunch

Fitch forecasts Sub-Saharan LNG exports will rise nearly 175% to 98 billion cubic meters by 2034 from 35.7 billion in 2024. The increase of 62.3 billion cubic meters is close to the 60 billion lost in eight months of war. The African Energy Chamber projects about $40 billion a year of upstream investment through 2030, lifting output to 12.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.

Parent-company moves drive the timeline. TotalEnergies restarted its 13.1 Mtpa Mozambique LNG project in January after a four-and-a-half-year force majeure, and it is about 45% complete. At 1.36 billion cubic meters per million tonnes, that plant alone adds 17.8 billion cubic meters a year.

ExxonMobil doubled its stake in the $30 billion Rovuma LNG project to 50% through an asset swap with Eni and targets a final investment decision in late 2026. Eni's $7.2 billion Coral North floating unit targets 2028 operations. TotalEnergies also took over the Mopane discovery in Namibia through a swap with Galp.

Where Europe Stands

EU storage stood at 74%, the lowest seasonal level since 2022, according to BloombergNEF figures carried by Oilprice.com. The IEA forecasts storage could fall below 10% by late March. Our earlier coverage of TTF at 88.66 euros per MWh flagged German storage at 61%, and an earlier move above 100 euros showed the same gap.

Analysts disagree on demand. Energy Intelligence suggests high prices could dampen LNG demand as they have for oil, while Shell's LNG Outlook 2026 projects demand up 65% between 2026 and 2050. That split, not the contract volumes, determines whether Africa's new supply meets a tight or loose market.