TTF Eases to 88.66 Euros per MWh as IEA Sees Record 3% LNG Supply Drop and German Gas Storage Sits at 61%

The Dutch TTF front-month gas contract traded at 88.66 euros per megawatt-hour in early Wednesday trading, down 3.22% from a previous close of 91.61, according to Trading Economics. The contract is still up 20.60% over the past month and 178.63% over the past year. Europe enters the heating season with its thinnest storage in more than a decade, and the IEA now says the squeeze will not end this winter.

IEA: Record LNG Supply Decline in 2026

The International Energy Agency said LNG loadings from Qatar and the UAE fell by more than 60 billion cubic meters between March and October, per Oilprice.com's summary of the agency's warning. Non-Gulf LNG output rose 14%, or more than 40 billion cubic meters year on year. That offset about two-thirds of the Gulf loss.

Global LNG production still fell about 6% over the period. The IEA expects supply to drop 3% in 2026, the steepest annual decline on record, assuming Hormuz flows stay largely disrupted through year end. The agency says regional LNG and gas benchmarks sit at their highest since the 2022-2023 crisis.

German Storage Is the Pressure Point

Germany's storage is about 61% full, below the government's 70% target, according to Trading Economics. EU-wide reserves are below 75%, the lowest on record for this time of year. German inventory stood at 150.41 terawatt-hours in November, down from 151.01.

Our arithmetic scales the shortfall. A 150.41 terawatt-hour inventory at 61% implies about 247 terawatt-hours of capacity, so the 9-point gap to target equals roughly 22 terawatt-hours. At 88.66 euros per megawatt-hour, buying that volume would cost about 1.97 billion euros. Colder weather in Northwest Europe is expected to raise heating demand, which makes refilling harder.

Archive Callback and Forecast Split

Oil Authority reported that TTF crossed 100 euros with EU storage at 74.89%. At the 103 euro quote cited then, today's price is 13.9% lower, yet storage has barely moved. The price relief has come from diplomacy, not from new molecules, as our earlier coverage of the 92.30 euro print showed.

Forecasters disagree on how much more relief is coming. Trading Economics projects 108.27 euros by the end of the quarter and 131.93 euros in 12 months. Goldman Sachs warned in September that a slow restoration of Middle East shipments into 2027 would push December TTF above 100 euros, per the Parameter report cited in our archive. Both views point higher than today's level.

Mixed diplomatic signals keep the range wide. Qatar reported hope for an interim agreement, but an Iranian official reportedly said a deal to end the war remains out of reach. Iranian strikes on commercial vessels near Hormuz continue, and the US has conducted limited defensive strikes on Iranian targets.