European Gas Tops EUR 100 Per MWh as EU Storage Adds Just 0.27 Points in a Week and the Henry Hub Gap Hits $31

European gas crossed EUR 100 per megawatt-hour on Friday for the first time since 2022. The TTF front-month contract was quoted at EUR 103.95 per MWh on October 30, up 6.15% on the day, according to Trading Economics. Oilprice.com separately reported the benchmark topped EUR 101 per MWh. Markets are closed until Monday, so Friday's print is the latest quote available.

One week after EUR 92.30: storage is barely moving

Oil Authority reported on October 23 that TTF had hit EUR 92.30 per MWh with EU storage at 74.62% full. The front-month is now 12.6% higher than that Friday open. Storage stood at 74.89% on October 29, according to Trading Economics, a gain of only 0.27 percentage points in seven days.

That compares with a 0.52 point gain in the prior week, when storage rose from 74.10% to 74.62%, as covered in our October 18 storage report. ING strategists had expected injections to peak just under 75%, per Oilprice.com. Injections are stalling at the level ING flagged.

Trading Economics put EU inventories about 100 TWh below last year's level in its October 28 market note. Germany and the Netherlands hold less gas than France and Italy. Rising heating demand is now competing with the remaining injection window.

The Henry Hub gap: what a cargo is worth

Converting at the EUR/USD rate of 1.11583 on October 30, per Trading Economics, EUR 103.95 per MWh equals $115.99 per MWh. Dividing by 3.412 MMBtu per MWh gives $34.00 per MMBtu. US natural gas traded at $2.898 per MMBtu the same day, per Trading Economics' Nymex quote.

That leaves a gross gap of $31.10 per MMBtu between European and US gas. One Bcf holds 1.037 million MMBtu at standard conversion, so each Bcf of US gas that reaches a European buyer carries an estimated $32.3 million of gross margin. That figure comes before liquefaction, shipping and regasification costs.

Our October 23 estimate was $28 million per Bcf, built on a $27.20 gap. The gap has widened by $3.90 per MMBtu in a week, adding an estimated $4 million per Bcf. US exporters with uncontracted volumes capture that spread; those on fixed-fee tolling contracts do not.

Forecasters have been split on how high this goes

Goldman Sachs warned in early September that a slow restoration of Middle East shipments into 2027 would push December 2026 TTF above EUR 100 per MWh, according to Parameter.io. The market reached that level two months ahead of the contract month. Goldman's scenario assumed a prolonged disruption, which matches the current tanker and Hormuz risk backdrop.

Citi's fourth-quarter base case of EUR 56, cited in our October 23 report, has not been confirmed as updated. If it still stands, it sits EUR 47.95 below Friday's quote. A gap that wide between a major bank and the screen suggests at least one forecast is stale.

Supply side: Qatar and the November 1 deadline

QatarEnergy extended force majeure on LNG deliveries to Italian utility Edison through early November, Parameter.io reported. The Edison contract typically covers about 10% of Italy's annual gas needs. Sebastian Heinermann of INES, the German storage trade association, warned that low inventories and a severe winter could leave Germany unable to meet standard demand.

Germany faces a 70% storage target and the Netherlands 80% by November 1, per the same report. Hitting those targets means buying into a market above EUR 100 per MWh. Oil is moving the same direction as gas, with Brent at $113.43 per barrel and WTI at $104.12 on Friday, per Trading Economics.

What to watch Monday

Traders will check whether TTF holds EUR 100 per MWh at the open, and whether the weekly storage gain stays below half a point. A third consecutive week of stalled injections would strengthen the case for Goldman's higher scenario. Asian buyers competing for the same cargoes, as in our JKM report from October 20, keep the pressure on.