TTF November Gas Settles Above 90 Euros for the First Time as EU Storage Holds at 74.67%

ICE Endex Dutch TTF November gas futures settled at 90.04 euros per megawatt-hour on Thursday, Oct. 22, up 3.0% from 87.43 euros, the contract's first settlement above 90 euros and its highest in ICE data going back to November 2024. European Union gas storage was 74.67% full on the same day, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, compared with 82.82% a year earlier.

EU Gas Storage Gains Only 0.34 Points in Six Days to 74.67%

AGSI data show EU storage at 74.33% on Oct. 16 and 74.67% on Oct. 22, a gain of 0.34 percentage points in six days. AGSI recorded a daily change of minus 0.03 points on Oct. 20, followed by gains of 0.02 points on Oct. 21 and 0.07 points on Oct. 22. Stocks held 845.5 terawatt-hours of gas on Oct. 22, about 99.7 terawatt-hours less than a year earlier, Oil Authority calculations.

Germany stood at 61.15% full, against 75.37% a year earlier. At roughly 1.1 terawatt-hours per standard LNG cargo, an Oil Authority assumption, the EU shortfall against last year equals about 91 cargoes, slightly fewer than the roughly 94 estimated in our Oct. 18 storage report.

The gap to last year narrowed from 103.3 terawatt-hours on Oct. 16 because storage a year ago was flat in the same period, at about 82.8%, while the EU kept making small injections. That narrowing reflects last year's pattern rather than any increase in supply this year.

ICE Endex TTF November Gains 10.6% Since Oct. 9

The November contract settled at 88.04 euros on Oct. 19, fell to 85.06 euros on Oct. 20 and recovered to 87.43 euros on Oct. 21 before the Oct. 22 gain. The December contract settled at 89.97 euros on Oct. 22. Since Oct. 9, when November settled at 81.43 euros, the front of the curve has gained about 10.6%.

At the European Central Bank's Oct. 22 reference rate of US$1.1205 per euro, 90.04 euros per megawatt-hour equals about US$29.57 per million British thermal units, Oil Authority calculations.

TTF-Henry Hub Gap Reaches $26.62 per MMBtu

Henry Hub spot gas was US$2.95 per million British thermal units on Oct. 22, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, leaving a gross gap of about US$26.62. Across one billion cubic feet, roughly 1.04 million MMBtu, that is about US$27.6 million of gross spread before liquefaction, shipping and regasification costs.

U.S. storage remains comfortable. The EIA reported 3,644 billion cubic feet in the Lower 48 for the week ended Oct. 16, after a 77 billion cubic feet injection. It forecasts Henry Hub at US$3.48 for 2026 and US$3.16 for 2027, and expects inventories to stay above the five-year average in most months.

Norway Output, Gulf LPG Exports and UK Jackdaw Shape European Supply

The International Energy Agency said in its Oct. 14 Oil Market Report that Gulf product and LPG exports remain below half of pre-war levels. The Norwegian Offshore Directorate said Norway's gas output fell 12.6% in September to 298.4 million standard cubic metres per day, 6.7% below forecast, as covered in our Norway report. New UK supply from the Jackdaw field, approved on Oct. 21, is expected to start from the end of October, as covered in our Jackdaw report.

Eni Guidance Assumes TTF at 55 Euros, 35 Euros Below the Market

Eni said in its third-quarter results on Oct. 23 that its 2026 guidance assumes TTF at 55 euros per megawatt-hour. The Oct. 22 settlement was about 35 euros above that level, as covered in our Eni report.

Alberta AECO Gas Trades at One-Nineteenth of TTF

Alberta Treasury Board and Finance reported AECO-C gas at C$2.12 per gigajoule on Oct. 15, about US$1.58 per million British thermal units. Western Canadian gas trades at roughly one-nineteenth of the TTF equivalent, a gap that underlines the value of LNG export capacity on Canada's West Coast for producers seeking access to higher-priced markets.

AGSI Withdrawals, EIA Gas Storage on Oct. 29 and TTF November Expiry

AGSI will show when net withdrawals begin in earnest. The EIA's next gas storage report is due on Oct. 29, and ICE Endex settlements will show whether the November contract holds above 90 euros into its expiry later this month, when December becomes the front month.