EU Gas Storage at 74.33% Trails Last Year by About 94 LNG Cargoes as TTF Settles at 87.55 Euros

European Union gas storage was 74.33% full on Oct. 16, compared with 82.81% on the same date in 2025, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe's Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory. Stocks held 841.7 terawatt-hours of gas, 103.3 terawatt-hours less than a year earlier. ICE Endex Dutch TTF November futures settled at 87.55 euros per megawatt-hour on Oct. 16, up 7.5% on the week.

EU Gas Storage Gap of 103.3 TWh Equals About 94 LNG Cargoes

A standard 175,000 cubic metre LNG carrier delivers roughly 1.1 terawatt-hours of gas, an Oil Authority assumption. On that basis, the 103.3 terawatt-hour shortfall against last year equals about 94 cargoes. Measured as a share of capacity, the shortfall is 8.48 percentage points, against EU working gas capacity of about 1,132 terawatt-hours.

Germany, the largest storage market, stood at 60.72% full on Oct. 16, against 75.48% a year earlier. EU storage added 0.09 percentage points on Oct. 16 and 0.07 points on Oct. 15, compared with daily gains of 0.12 to 0.18 points between Oct. 6 and Oct. 9. At the slower pace, each additional point of fill now takes more than a week to add.

ICE Endex TTF November Rises From 81.43 to 87.55 Euros

The November TTF contract settled at 81.43 euros on Oct. 9 and rose through the week, reaching 87.22 euros on Oct. 13 and 87.55 euros on Oct. 16. At the European Central Bank's Oct. 16 reference rate of US$1.1253 per euro, 87.55 euros per megawatt-hour equals about US$28.87 per million British thermal units, Oil Authority calculations.

The International Energy Agency said in its Oct. 14 Oil Market Report that Gulf LPG exports reached 670,000 barrels per day in September, against 1.5 million before the war, and that product and LPG flows remain below half of pre-war levels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that Qatar's crude production shut-ins held at 100,000 barrels per day in August and September, part of a regional shortfall of 4.77 million barrels per day.

Our earlier report on South Korea's fuel switching covered how Asian buyers are responding to the same supply squeeze.

U.S. Gas Storage at 3,567 Bcf as Henry Hub Trades at $3.22

U.S. gas storage faces the opposite position. The EIA's weekly storage report showed 3,567 billion cubic feet in the Lower 48 for the week ended Oct. 9, after a 67 billion cubic feet injection. Henry Hub spot gas was US$3.22 per million British thermal units on Oct. 16, according to the EIA.

The EIA forecasts Henry Hub at US$3.48 for 2026 and US$3.16 for 2027, and expects inventories to stay above the five-year average in most months. Against the US$28.87 TTF equivalent, the gross transatlantic gap is US$25.65 per million British thermal units. Each billion cubic feet per day of U.S. LNG feedgas, about 1.04 million MMBtu, therefore represents about US$26.6 million of gross daily spread before liquefaction, shipping and regasification costs, Oil Authority calculations.

Alberta AECO Gas at US$1.58 Is One-Eighteenth of TTF

Alberta Treasury Board and Finance reported the AECO-C price at C$2.12 per gigajoule on Oct. 15. At the province's published exchange rate of 70.44 U.S. cents, that is about US$1.58 per million British thermal units, roughly one-eighteenth of the TTF equivalent, Oil Authority calculations. The spread shows the value of Canadian LNG export capacity on the West Coast while North American gas remains priced well below European and Asian benchmarks.

EU Storage Rose From 73.46% to 74.33% Since Oct. 9

Our Oct. 10 storage report tracked EU stocks near 73%. In the week since, AGSI data show storage rising from 73.46% on Oct. 9 to 74.33% on Oct. 16, while the November TTF contract gained about 6.1 euros. Buyers are paying more for each additional point of storage as the injection season ends.

AGSI Daily Storage, EIA Report on Oct. 22 and TTF Settlements Next

AGSI publishes daily EU and German storage levels, and the first net withdrawal of the season will mark the turn into winter. The EIA's next weekly gas storage report is due on Oct. 22. ICE Endex settlements will show whether TTF holds above 85 euros as colder weather arrives and storage operators begin net withdrawals.