Venture Global Raises 2026 EBITDA Guidance to US$10.0 Billion to US$10.3 Billion After Record Quarter

Venture Global, Inc. raised its 2026 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA guidance to US$10.0 billion to US$10.3 billion on Tuesday, up from US$8.7 billion to US$9.1 billion, after reporting the largest quarterly earnings in its history from its Louisiana LNG plants.

The Arlington, Virginia, exporter earned US$2.6 billion of Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA in the three months to September 30, 69% more than a year earlier, on revenue of US$4.8 billion. It exported 124 cargos in the quarter, against 100 in the third quarter of 2025.

The raise rests on cargos that are already sold. Venture Global says 99% of its 2026 cargos are contracted, so the outlook leans on volumes the company controls rather than on a spot market it cannot predict. For Canadian LNG developers, the same results show where long-term buyers are shopping: chief executive Mike Sabel told investors on the company's earnings call that demand for long-term contracts is stronger than it has ever been, particularly from Asian buyers.

Venture Global's raised outlook leaves little exposure to fees on unsold cargos

The new guidance assumes a weighted average liquefaction fee of US$21.00 to US$22.00 per MMBtu on the few cargos still unsold, a range the company says matches current forward curves. Contracted 2026 cargos carry a weighted average fee of US$6.46 per MMBtu. A US$1.00 move in the fee on unsold cargos changes full-year EBITDA by only US$20 million to US$30 million.

By Oil Authority's arithmetic, the midpoint of the EBITDA range rose from US$8.9 billion to US$10.15 billion, an increase of US$1.25 billion or about 14%.

Feed gas stays cheap by comparison. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's Henry Hub spot series put natural gas at US$2.63 per MMBtu on November 3, 2026, the latest day published when this article was written.

Venture Global also cautioned that 2027 will look different. Chief financial officer Jack Thayer said on the call that long-term contracts at Plaquemines will affect Phase 1 margins, and that the company will give 2027 EBITDA guidance on its fourth-quarter call.

Plaquemines Phase 1 starts long-term sales 53 months after its investment decision

Plaquemines LNG reached its commercial operations date for Phase 1 on October 31, just over 53 months after the final investment decision. Shell lifted the first cargo under the long-term contracts on November 1, and the company says it has now loaded six cargos for contract customers. Phase 2 is on target for mid-2027.

A third plant is closing in. At CP2, 24 of 36 liquefaction modules are on site, and Venture Global moved its first LNG target to mid-year 2027, roughly 24 months after Phase 1 reached a final investment decision in July 2025. It is keeping its 2027 outlook of 575 to 625 cargos, which includes 10 to 20 from CP2.

Expansion decisions follow. The company targets a final investment decision on a 10 million tonne per year CP2 expansion in early 2027, and on a Plaquemines expansion in mid-2027, subject to regulatory approvals.

New contracts keep the order book growing. Venture Global signed a 20-year agreement with ConocoPhillips for 1.0 million tonnes per year starting in 2030, a 20-year agreement with China Gas for 0.5 million tonnes per year from the CP2 expansion, and a 0.5 million tonne increase from an existing customer. The company expects more 20-year contracts before year-end, as other sellers also place U.S. LNG volumes.

Venture Global's frame agreements with GE Vernova and Baker Hughes open a power business

The quarter's most unusual disclosure sits outside LNG. In October, Venture Global signed frame agreements with GE Vernova and Baker Hughes Energy Services for up to 16 power island units of 720 MW each, plus grid equipment from GE Grid Solutions. Multiplied out, that is about 11.5 GW of combined-cycle capacity if every unit is ordered.

The company wants to sell that power to data center operators without a public grid connection. "We are also excited about a potential new, additive line of business for the Company: expanding our existing and proven capabilities building and operating an island-mode power and infrastructure network to be able to offer an off-grid AI utility to support data centers," Sabel said in the company's third-quarter earnings release on November 10.

The plan is staged. Venture Global expects the first 250 MW in late 2028, targets 5 GW by the end of 2031 and sees potential for 10 GW by 2034 across two Louisiana parishes. It will add capacity as investment grade customers sign, and has named none.

Venture Global says any power development would be separate from its LNG operations and would not affect its LNG sales agreements.

Investors get a first look at 2027 on the fourth-quarter call early next year. Before then, Venture Global plans its first power plant order by year-end, and its board has declared a dividend of US$0.04 per share, payable on December 31 to holders of record on December 15.