Norway Gas Output Falls 12.6% to 298.4 Million Cubic Metres a Day in September, 6.7% Below Forecast

Norway produced 298.4 million standard cubic metres of natural gas per day in September, down 12.6% from 341.6 million in August and 6.7% below the forecast of 319.9 million, according to preliminary figures published by the Norwegian Offshore Directorate on Oct. 20. Total gas sales were 9.0 billion standard cubic metres, 1.6 billion less than in August.

Norwegian Offshore Directorate September Oil, Gas and NGL Figures

Average liquids production was 1.90 million barrels per day, made up of 1.73 million barrels of oil, 154,000 barrels of natural gas liquids and 16,000 barrels of condensate. Oil output fell 145,000 barrels per day, or 7.7%, from August but ran 0.7% above the directorate's forecast. Total petroleum production was 0.600 million standard cubic metres of oil equivalent per day, 10.4% below August and 4% below forecast.

Compared with September 2025, gas output was 5.1% higher, while oil production was 8.4% lower. The directorate said oil production so far this year is 4.1% above its forecast, and total petroleum production of about 181.7 million standard cubic metres of oil equivalent is 5.1 million more than in the same period of 2025.

Norway Gas Shortfall Worth About 19.2 Million Euros a Day at TTF

Gas production fell short of forecast by 21.4 million standard cubic metres per day. Assuming about 10.55 gigawatt-hours of energy per million standard cubic metres, that is roughly 226 gigawatt-hours a day, Oil Authority calculations. At the ICE Endex Dutch TTF November settlement of 85.06 euros per megawatt-hour on Oct. 20, the missing gas carries a market value of about 19.2 million euros per day.

The full month-on-month decline of 43.2 million standard cubic metres per day is worth about 38.8 million euros per day at the same price. These figures value the gas at the TTF settlement rather than at producers' realized prices, and Norwegian gas is sold under a mix of contract terms.

On the oil side, the 145,000 barrel per day decline from August is worth about $15.8 million per day at the ICE Brent December settlement of $108.79 per barrel on Oct. 20, Oil Authority calculations.

TTF Falls 3.4% to 85.06 Euros as EU Gas Storage Starts to Draw

The November TTF contract settled at 85.06 euros on Oct. 20, down 3.4% from 88.04 euros a day earlier. Brent December fell 76 cents from its Oct. 19 settlement of $109.55. Gas Infrastructure Europe data show EU storage at 74.57% full on Oct. 20, with AGSI recording a daily change of minus 0.03 percentage points, one of the first daily declines of the season. Storage stood at 82.82% a year earlier.

Our EU storage report traced Europe's gap mainly to lower LNG supply. The Norwegian figures add a pipeline-side factor for September, when output ran 21.4 million standard cubic metres per day below plan.

Norwegian Gas Sales Make Up More Than Half of 2026 Petroleum Output

Norway is a major pipeline gas supplier to the European Union and the United Kingdom, so any difference between forecast and actual output feeds directly into storage balances. Gas for sale made up about 92.2 million standard cubic metres of oil equivalent of the 181.7 million produced so far this year, more than half of the total, with oil at about 80.7 million and NGL and condensate at about 8.7 million, according to the directorate. The directorate's figures do not split the September decline between scheduled maintenance and other operational factors. Its October and November releases will show how much of the drop was temporary.

The broader supply picture remains tight. The International Energy Agency said in its Oct. 14 Oil Market Report that Gulf product and LPG exports remain below half of pre-war levels, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates Middle East crude shut-ins at 4.77 million barrels per day in September, as covered in our shut-in report.

Norwegian Offshore Directorate October Figures Due in November

The directorate publishes October production figures in November. AGSI data will show whether EU storage continues to draw, and ICE Endex settlements will show whether TTF holds above 85 euros as heating demand builds. A recovery in Norwegian gas output toward forecast would ease part of the pressure on European storage this winter.