Norway Gas Output Falls 12.6% to 298.4 Million Cubic Meters Daily as Europe Enters Winter

Norway produced 298.4 million standard cubic meters of natural gas per day in September, down 12.6% from August, according to preliminary Norwegian Offshore Directorate figures reported by Oilprice.com on Tuesday. August output averaged 341.6 million cubic meters per day. The 43.2 million cubic meter daily decline left production 6.7% below the directorate's forecast of 319.9 million.

Gas sales totaled 9 billion cubic meters in September, against 10.6 billion in August. Total petroleum output averaged 3.77 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, down 10.4% on the month and 4% below forecast. Gas production still ran 5.1% above September 2025, and nine-month petroleum output stood 2.9% ahead of the same period last year.

Maintenance, Gassco and the Ormen Lange outage

Gassco warned in late August that planned maintenance could cut Norwegian export capacity by about 20% through parts of September. Gassco transparency data cited by Oilprice.com put the median aggregate capacity reduction at 71 million cubic meters per day. On October 1, Gassco confirmed that its major scheduled maintenance was complete.

Maintenance does not explain everything. The directorate's September release does not split the decline between scheduled work and other operational factors, according to Oilprice.com. Separately, an extended outage at the Shell-operated Ormen Lange field is expected to cut deliveries by 7.9 million cubic meters per day until February 1, 2027.

What the forecast gap costs at current TTF prices

The shortfall against forecast was 21.5 million cubic meters per day. Assuming 10.55 gigawatt-hours of energy per million standard cubic meters, that equals 226.8 gigawatt-hours daily. At the October 19 TTF close of €87.73 per megawatt-hour, reported by EnergyRiskIQ, the missing gas carries a market value of €19.9 million per day.

The full month-on-month drop of 43.2 million cubic meters per day is worth €40.0 million per day at the same price. Ormen Lange alone, at 7.9 million cubic meters per day, represents €7.3 million per day of gas that Europe cannot buy from that field until February. These figures are our calculation from the directorate's volumes, and they value the gas at the TTF close rather than at the producers' realized prices.

Archive comparison: from LNG shortfall to pipeline supply

Our October 18 report found that EU storage at 74% trailed last year by 92 LNG cargoes while TTF held above €86 per megawatt-hour. That analysis located the gap on the LNG side. The Norwegian data adds a pipeline-side cause: September flows ran 21.5 million cubic meters per day under plan during the heaviest maintenance window.

EnergyRiskIQ now shows EU storage at 74.6%, which it measures as 17.4 percentage points below the seasonal norm of 92.0%. TTF closed Monday at €87.73 per megawatt-hour, down €1.20 on the day. With Gassco's maintenance finished, the structural question has shifted from capacity to field availability.

Crude output and the Brent settlement

Norwegian crude production averaged 1.73 million barrels per day in September, down about 145,000 barrels per day, or 7.7%, from August. Output was 8.4% below September 2025 but 0.7% above the directorate's monthly forecast. Total liquids averaged 1.90 million barrels per day, down 168,000.

Brent crude for December delivery settled at $108.79 per barrel on Tuesday's ICE close, down $0.76, or 0.69%, in a settlement report published by The Star. West Texas Intermediate for November delivery, which expired Tuesday, settled at $101.79 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 1.8%. At the Brent settlement, the 145,000 barrels per day Norway lost between August and September is worth $15.8 million per day.

What to watch in the fourth quarter

The directorate's October and November figures will show how much of the September drop reflected temporary maintenance. According to Oilprice.com, the year-to-date numbers suggest the decline does not by itself signal a structural downturn. The same analysis argues that mature Norwegian fields need continued drilling and development investment to offset natural decline.

Norway supplies roughly 30% of combined EU and UK gas demand, per Oilprice.com. That share makes Ormen Lange's recovery timeline and any unplanned outages at processing hubs the main variables for winter balances. Briefs.co reported on Tuesday that PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga sees falling Middle East export volumes tightening the oil front end, a backdrop that leaves Europe less room for further pipeline gas losses.