UK Approves Adura's Jackdaw Gas Field at 40,000 Barrels a Day as EU Storage Lags 15 Points Behind the Five-Year Average

The UK government approved the Jackdaw gas field on Wednesday, the first new North Sea project cleared since the Iran war lifted energy prices, per OilPrice.com. Adura, the company formed by merging the UK North Sea assets of Shell and Equinor, operates the field. Supply to British homes and businesses is set to begin by the end of October. At peak, Jackdaw could heat about 1.4 million UK homes.

Who Stands Behind Jackdaw

Adura is owned by Shell and Equinor, which pooled their UK North Sea portfolios into one operator. Equinor already sells Norwegian pipeline gas into the same European market, so Jackdaw adds a UK source beside those volumes. Adura says Jackdaw and Rosebank together could supply about 10% of UK domestic gas production at peak.

Rosebank, another stalled project, still awaits consent, and Adura hopes for a decision soon. Jackdaw was first approved several years ago, but environmentalists overturned that consent in court because climate effects were not considered. The project then went through environmental and regulatory reviews again.

Jackdaw's Size in Plain Terms

Adura puts Jackdaw's peak at 40,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, mainly gas, about 6% of British gas supply, per OE Digital. Using a rough industry conversion of 170 cubic metres of gas per barrel of oil equivalent, that is about 6.8 million cubic metres per day, or 2.5 billion cubic metres a year.

TTF traded at €85.88 per megawatt-hour on Wednesday, up about 1%, per Trading Economics. One barrel of oil equivalent holds about 1.7 megawatt-hours, so 40,000 barrels carry about 68,000 megawatt-hours. At Wednesday's price, that is roughly €5.8 million of gas per day, or €2.1 billion a year at peak output and constant price.

Jackdaw gas lands in the UK, so this comparison shows scale rather than direct EU supply. Even so, 2.5 billion cubic metres equals about 21% of the 11.6 billion cubic meter shortfall in EU storage against last year.

Europe's Storage Position

EU storage was 72.97% full on October 6, holding 79.9 billion cubic metres, per TASS citing Gas Infrastructure Europe data. That sits 11.6 billion cubic metres below the same date last year and 15.11 percentage points below the five-year average. Trading Economics put storage at 74.62% on October 20, with Germany just above 61%.

The sources disagree on how rare the shortfall is. Trading Economics calls it the lowest seasonal level since records began in 2009, while TASS says the lowest for the date since the GIE series began in 2011. Both agree that no recent autumn has started the heating season this low.

Forecasts Diverge on the Finish

Gazprom warned that European inventories might not even reach 75%. TASS estimates that EU countries may fill to only 70% to 75% by the start of the heating season, which would be an all-time low. The European Commission is reportedly prepared to lower the 90% target to 80% this year, anticipating a mild winter.

Persian Gulf LNG shipments remain restricted, with regional exports about 80% below last year's levels, per Trading Economics. TTF is more than double pre-conflict levels and near its highest since December 2022. Strong Asian demand could intensify competition for cargoes as colder weather arrives.

Archive Callback: Norway Is Shrinking as Storage Empties

Oil Authority reported that Norway gas output fell 12.6% to 298.4 million cubic metres daily. Jackdaw's 6.8 million cubic metres per day equals about 2.3% of that Norwegian rate. Earlier we tracked JKM above $30 after a Red Sea LNG carrier attack. Jackdaw offsets only a small slice of the Norwegian decline.