JKM Tops $30 as Red Sea LNG Carrier Attack Hits Europe and Asia, With a $93 Million US Gas Spread Per Cargo

Asian spot LNG climbed above $30 per MMBtu on Tuesday, the first time since December 2022, after a small boat fired on an LNG carrier in the Red Sea. LNGInsights showed the JKM benchmark at $30.87 per MMBtu at 13:14 UTC on October 20, up 3.69% on the day. Dutch TTF stood at €89.72 per MWh, equal to $29.53 per MMBtu, up 3.87%.

Henry Hub sat at $2.99 per MMBtu in the same snapshot, down 1.29%. These are indicative aggregator quotes, not exchange settlements. Henry Hub now trades at roughly one-tenth of the TTF price in dollar terms.

What moved JKM past $30

The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre reported that a small boat fired on an LNG carrier, and the crew answered with warning shots, according to an OilPrice.com report dated October 20 that cites Bloomberg. Spot LNG has traded above $25 per MMBtu for about a month as buyers prepare for winter. Asia and Europe are bidding for the same prompt cargoes.

JKM sat at $26.19 on September 21 per LNGInsights, so the benchmark has gained 17.9% in a month. The JKM premium to TTF held at $1.34 per MMBtu on both dates. Asia is not pulling away from Europe; both regions are repricing together.

QatarEnergy declared force majeure on exports after the war began and is still trying to serve contracts, per the same report. A Qatari carrier is crossing the Red Sea toward Poland under a long-term deal with Orlen. Energy Aspects puts 2026 Qatari exports at 38.7 million tonnes, roughly half of pre-conflict capacity.

Europe's storage gap meets a Red Sea route

EU storage was 74.10% full on October 16, against 83.04% a year earlier, as we reported in our October 18 storage analysis. OilPrice.com puts the five-year seasonal average at about 89%, a gap of roughly 15 points. TTF then traded between €86 and €88 per MWh.

Tuesday's €89.72 print sits €3.18 above the €86.54 LNGInsights quoted on October 16. The Red Sea route could shorten Qatari deliveries to Europe. The same attack risk could keep shipowners from using it, which leaves the supply benefit unproven.

Archive comparison: what changed since our last JKM story

Our South Korea demand-cut analysis tracked buyers shifting to coal and nuclear as JKM climbed. Today's price is higher, yet the response is the same: demand falls rather than supply rises. OilPrice.com notes that less wealthy Asian buyers may lean further on coal.

Europe has fewer options on the demand side. Many of its coal plants have closed, so utilities must pay the prevailing price to refill storage. That asymmetry helps explain why TTF tracks JKM so closely.

Oil Authority calculation: the US netback gap per cargo

The TTF to Henry Hub spread is $26.54 per MMBtu in the LNGInsights snapshot. A conventional LNG carrier holds roughly 3.5 million MMBtu, which is our working assumption for a standard cargo. At that size, the gross gap between US and European gas prices is roughly $93 million per cargo.

That figure is before liquefaction fees, shipping and regasification, so shippers will not keep all of it. It shows the scale of the incentive for US exporters while Henry Hub stays below $3. Every cargo that leaves a Gulf Coast terminal captures a spread larger than the entire value of the gas at Henry Hub.

What to watch

• Whether Qatari carriers keep using the Red Sea route to Europe after Tuesday's incident.
• EU storage prints, with the gap to the 89% five-year average at about 15 points.
• The JKM to TTF premium, which has held at $1.34 per MMBtu.
• Thursday's EIA natural gas storage report for US injection pace against Henry Hub near $3.