Brent Crude Falls 4.15% to $89.24 as Trump Suspends Iran Military Plans and Signals a Deal by Weekend

Brent crude fell 4.15% to $89.24 per barrel on Thursday, per Trading Economics market data, as President Trump suspended planned military operations against Iran and indicated Washington and Tehran were close to a peace agreement. WTI crude settled at $85.56 per barrel, down 3.61% on the day. Henry Hub natural gas dropped to $3.08 per MMBtu, a 3.31% decline, after the EIA reported a storage injection that beat consensus forecasts by seven billion cubic feet. All three benchmarks posted their sharpest single-session declines in several weeks.

What Trump Announced Thursday Afternoon

Trump suspended planned military actions against Iran and told reporters that Washington and Tehran were close to reaching an agreement to end the war, with a potential deal signing as early as this weekend. Earlier in the trading session, the president had threatened additional strikes on Iran and had discussed seizing the country's oil sector assets. The afternoon reversal dominated energy markets, overriding the morning's hawkish signals. Oil facilities in the region have largely been spared from direct conflict damage, limiting the actual supply disruption the crisis imposed.

The $15.76 Gap: STEO Forecast vs. Thursday's Settlement

The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook, published June 9, projected Brent averaging $105 per barrel for June and July 2026, based on an assumption of sustained Hormuz closure. Thursday's settlement at $89.24 sits $15.76 below that forecast. At Canada's 5.043 million barrels per day of crude output, each $1 move in WTI-linked WCS pricing represents $5.0 million in daily gross revenue for the Canadian oil patch. The $15.76 gap implies $79.5 million per day in downside for Canadian producers relative to the EIA's peak Hormuz scenario.

Western Canadian Select typically trades $12 to $15 per barrel below WTI. With WTI at $85.56 on Thursday, WCS sits in the $70 to $74 per barrel range. As Oil Authority reported when the WCS discount narrowed, tanker rerouting during the peak Hormuz crisis briefly tightened the Canadian heavy crude basis. Thursday's de-escalation signals have pushed WTI itself lower, pulling the WCS netback down with it.

Three Sources, Three Very Different Scenarios

Published outlooks on Brent span a wide range, reflecting the binary structure of the deal-or-no-deal scenario facing the market. The EIA STEO projects Brent averaging $95 per barrel for full-year 2026, built on a partial Hormuz resumption assumption. Trading Economics analyst consensus puts Brent at $94.04 by quarter-end. Intelligence analysis cited by OilPrice.com on Thursday warns that prices could spike to $150 per barrel if the US-Iran ceasefire collapses entirely. A $56 spread across a three-month forecast window reflects the scale of supply uncertainty that a US-Iran deal would resolve.

The EIA also released its SHIP Act Report on Iranian Petroleum and Petroleum Products Exports on Thursday, June 11, tracking the volume and destination of Iranian crude flows including shadow fleet arrangements. That report's release on the same day as Trump's deal signal creates a pointed juxtaposition: the market is pricing a deal while a federal agency is cataloguing how much Iranian crude has been moving outside formal channels. If those exports re-enter the formal market post-deal, the supply impulse would compound the OPEC+ quota hikes the cartel has already announced.

Natural Gas Follows Crude Lower After Storage Beat

Henry Hub natural gas dropped to $3.08 per MMBtu on Thursday, down 3.31%, after the EIA reported a 108 billion cubic foot injection for the week ending June 5. Consensus forecasts had centred on 101 billion cubic feet. Total working gas in storage reached 2,686 billion cubic feet, 151 billion cubic feet above the five-year seasonal average of 2,535 billion cubic feet, a 6.0% surplus per the EIA's weekly report. LNG export flows fell to 16.5 billion cubic feet per day in June from 17.1 billion cubic feet per day in May, due to scheduled maintenance at several major export facilities.

Canadian Oil Sands Operators in the Crosscurrent

Suncor Energy and Imperial Oil are two of the largest oil sands producers running WTI-linked production volumes in Alberta. Imperial Oil is a majority-owned subsidiary of ExxonMobil, meaning price movements at the parent level flow directly through to Canadian operations. Canada's crude output reached 5.043 million barrels per day in February 2026, per Trading Economics, down modestly from an all-time high of 5.234 million barrels per day recorded in November 2025. With WTI at $85.56 on Thursday, operators are generating revenues well below the $95 to $105 per barrel range the EIA projected for this period under closed-Strait conditions.

When WTI last traded near $86 after Trump reversed the Kharg Island threat, traders read that move as a tactical gesture inside an ongoing conflict. Thursday's announcement goes further, framing a complete suspension of military operations with a deal-signing timeline attached. OPEC's own data shows member crude output has fallen to 16.13 million barrels per day, the lowest level since the year 2000. A deal that reopens Hormuz and restores Gulf export volumes would put additional supply pressure on a market already repricing downward.