Brent Falls to $95.54 as US-Iran 60-Day Ceasefire Extension Talks Advance; ADNOC Sends Tanker Through Hormuz With AIS Disabled

ICE Brent front-month futures were trading at $95.54 per barrel on Wednesday, down $4.04 or 4.1 percent from Tuesday's ICE settlement of $99.58, per TradingEconomics. NYMEX WTI fell to $89.66 per barrel, a decline of 4.2 percent from Tuesday's close, also per TradingEconomics. Brent traded as low as $91.78 during Wednesday's session before partially recovering, according to Investing.com intraday data.

A 60-Day Ceasefire Extension Framework Takes Shape

Traders are pricing in rising odds of a formal US-Iran deal that would partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Under the proposed framework, Washington and Tehran would extend the current ceasefire by 60 days. Iran would commit to clearing naval mines from the Strait within 30 days of signing. Washington would provide targeted sanctions relief and unfreeze $20 to $25 billion in Iranian assets held in foreign banks, including accounts in Qatar, per OilPrice.com reporting from May 27.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday that an agreement was "still in the realm of possibility," but cautioned signing could take "several additional days," per OilPrice.com. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei acknowledged that negotiating positions had "converged" while stating that "signing remains distant." Pakistan's military chief General Asim Munir, the primary mediator between Washington and Tehran, told China the deal was "close to being reached," per OilPrice.com.

ADNOC Sends LNG Carrier Through the Strait With Tracking Off

The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company sent an LNG carrier, the Umm Al Ashtan, through the Strait with its AIS maritime tracking transponder disabled in early Wednesday trading, per OilPrice.com. The vessel loaded at Das Island LNG terminal in the UAE and delivered cargo to India without broadcasting position data. ADNOC has now completed at least three such covert transits since the Hormuz closure began in late February.

Two supertankers also exited the Strait on Tuesday, representing roughly 4 million barrels of crude in one of the first large movements of that scale in a week, per OilPrice.com. Iran has been offering bilateral safe passage agreements to importing nations in exchange for toll payments exceeding $1 million per vessel, via the Persian Gulf Strait Authority it established after the blockade began. A US government vessel also departed the Gulf of Mexico carrying 616,000 barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve bound for the Philippines, per OilPrice.com, marking the first US-to-Asia crude shipment since late 2022.

What a $4 Decline Means on 10 Million Blocked Barrels Per Day

As recently as Tuesday's ICE settlement of $99.58, Brent was still trading near $100 as Doha diplomacy injected uncertainty. The Bandar Abbas strike session on the same day sent Brent to an intraday high of $99.72 before talks pulled it back. Wednesday's move to $95.54 extends that reversal by an additional $4.04 per barrel.

The Hormuz crisis has blocked an estimated 10 million barrels per day of Persian Gulf export flow since February 28, 2026, per Wikipedia's 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis documentation. At $4.04 per barrel less revenue on that volume, Wednesday's decline alone represents approximately $40.4 million per day in forgone gross export revenue for Gulf producers. For North Sea operators like Equinor and BP, whose output is priced against Brent-linked benchmarks, the drop removes roughly $700 million to $800 million of annualized revenue per million barrels per day of production. Brent at $95.54 per barrel still sits approximately 47 percent above the one-year-ago level of around $64.89, per TradingEconomics, reflecting the residual supply-shock premium.

OPEC Sidelined After UAE Departure

Saudi Aramco routes crude via the East-West Pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea, bypassing the Strait entirely. ADNOC uses the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline across the UAE to the Gulf of Oman. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the only large Persian Gulf producers currently exporting at near-normal volumes.

The UAE formally left OPEC on April 28, 2026, per Al Jazeera reporting, a departure described as signaling the end of Gulf solidarity. OPEC+ had pledged an output increase of 206,000 barrels per day to offset crisis losses, but total OPEC production has fallen roughly 9.7 million barrels per day since the conflict began. Without UAE membership, OPEC lacks the internal cohesion to coordinate a formal price-floor defense in the current selloff.

Obstacles Remain; Forecasters Split on Where Prices Settle

Three disputes are holding up a signed agreement: the disposition of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile; the timing and scope of US sanctions relief; and whether Iran will guarantee toll-free Hormuz passage or continue the toll structure of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority. Iranian negotiators Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf were in Qatar for talks when fresh US strikes hit southern Iran on May 26, per OilPrice.com. Tehran called the strikes a "grave violation" of the ceasefire.

TradingEconomics analyst consensus projects Brent at $105.57 per barrel by the end of Q2 2026 and $120.25 in 12 months, reflecting expectations that full Hormuz restoration takes considerable time. Goldman Sachs projected Q4 Brent at $90, while Wood Mackenzie warned of $200, a spread of forecasts rarely seen outside of conflict periods, per Tuesday's settlement analysis. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan said retail gasoline prices "will remain elevated until we see significant amounts of ships transit through the Strait."