Inpex Ichthys LNG Strike Ends After $200 Million Loss as Qatar Prepares Restart and TTF Drops 17% on Hormuz Ceasefire

Workers at Inpex's Ichthys LNG facility in Darwin, Australia ratified a new enterprise bargaining agreement on Wednesday, ending a dispute that had shut down one production train, per LNG Prime. The industrial action cost an estimated $200 million in lost output across condensate and LNG cargoes. More than 400 members of the Offshore Alliance, the Australian Workers Union, and the Electrical Trades Union endorsed the settlement. TotalEnergies holds approximately 26% of the Ichthys project alongside operator Inpex.

What Ichthys Means for Japan and Taiwan's LNG Supply

The Ichthys facility shipped 112 LNG cargoes in 2025 and had dispatched 43 in the first four months of 2026, per LNG Prime. According to LNG Prime data, Ichthys accounted for approximately 8% of Japan's LNG imports and 8% of Taiwan's in recent periods. Japan imported roughly 65 million tonnes of LNG in 2025. At an 8% share, Ichthys supplies roughly 5.2 million tonnes annually to Japan, equal to approximately 0.7 billion cubic feet of gas per day for that market alone. The strike's one-train shutdown placed those volumes at risk until Wednesday's settlement.

Qatar Prepares Ras Laffan Restart After Hormuz Ceasefire

QatarEnergy operates the Ras Laffan industrial complex, which houses Qatar's approximately 77 million tonne per annum LNG export capacity. All of that capacity transits the Strait of Hormuz to reach global buyers. With the US-Iran 60-day ceasefire setting the stage for Hormuz to reopen, Qatar is preparing to resume full LNG exports ahead of the formal accord signing in Switzerland on June 19, per OilPrice.com. Qatar's 77 MTPA converts to roughly 10.6 billion cubic feet of gas equivalent per day, representing approximately 18% of global LNG supply at 2025 trade volumes.

TTF Falls 17%; ECB Warns Europe Faces a Prolonged Adjustment

European natural gas on the TTF hub settled near 41.38 EUR/MWh on Wednesday, down 17.65% over the past month and 0.93% below Tuesday's close, per TradingEconomics. The European Central Bank warned in a June 3 blog post that the current energy shock is "significant and global." The ECB noted the euro area enters this disruption in a more balanced position than during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine energy crisis. ECB commentary cited by multiple outlets this week reiterated that supply restoration will not immediately erase Europe's elevated energy costs. TradingEconomics models project TTF at 47.29 EUR/MWh by end of the third quarter, implying 14% upside from current levels as the market prices in a recovery lag.

Henry Hub and the US LNG Arbitrage

US natural gas on CME Henry Hub was trading at $3.19 per MMBtu on Wednesday, down 1.44% from Tuesday, per TradingEconomics. The EIA raised its 2026 Henry Hub forecast to $3.60 per MMBtu on June 16, citing record US LNG export flows of 16.6 billion cubic feet per day, as Oil Authority reported that day. Converting TTF's 41.38 EUR/MWh at the current EUR/USD rate of 1.1601 yields approximately $14 per MMBtu. That leaves the Henry Hub-to-TTF spread near $11 per MMBtu, an arbitrage that has underpinned record US LNG export runs and is expected to persist through summer.