Woodside Scarborough LNG Reaches 96% Completion as Qatar's 12.8 MTPA Supply Gap Widens

Woodside Energy Group's Scarborough LNG project, located 375 kilometres off the northwest coast of Western Australia, is 96% complete, the company reported in a May 2026 project update. The project is on track to deliver its first cargo via the new Pluto Train 2 processing facility in the second half of 2026, per LNG Prime reporting. The floating production unit arrived at the Scarborough gas field in January 2026. Woodside owns 100% of the Scarborough resource following the BHP Petroleum merger completed in mid-2022 and targets nameplate production of 5 million tonnes per annum from Pluto Train 2.

The timing places Scarborough at the centre of global LNG supply rebalancing. QatarEnergy's Ras Laffan facilities sustained infrastructure damage during U.S. military operations in early March 2026, taking an estimated 12.8 million tonnes per annum of LNG export capacity offline, according to Natural Gas Intelligence and the IEA. QatarEnergy has said repairs could take three to five years. Qatar had been the world's largest LNG exporter at approximately 77 million tonnes per annum before the damage.

Qatar Gap and Asian Spot Prices

The 12.8 MTPA outage equals 17% of QatarEnergy's pre-damage capacity and an estimated 20% of global LNG trade, per IEA analysis. Asian buyers bear the greatest exposure, with approximately 80% of Qatar's LNG exports flowing to Japan, South Korea, China, and India. Japan sources 70% of its Middle Eastern oil imports via the Strait of Hormuz; South Korea, China, Italy, and Belgium have all been forced to compete on the spot market for replacement cargoes, per IEA data.

JKM, the Japan-Korea Marker for Asian LNG spot prices, stood at $18.24 per MMBtu as of the May 27, 2026 Platts assessment, per OilPrice.com data, up 50.66% year-on-year. That gain implies JKM averaged $12.10 per MMBtu in May 2025, before the Ras Laffan damage inflated spot prices. Using the standard industry conversion of 52 MMBtu per metric tonne, Woodside's 5 MTPA Scarborough output equals 260 million MMBtu per year of cargo volume.

Scarborough Revenue Impact at Current JKM

At $18.24 per MMBtu, Scarborough's 260 million MMBtu of annual cargo volume carries a gross value of $4.74 billion per year. At the implied year-ago JKM of $12.10 per MMBtu, the same output was worth $3.15 billion. The $1.59 billion gap represents additional annual cargo revenue Woodside stands to capture from the price-environment improvement alone, before operating cost changes. Every full day Scarborough runs at capacity under today's JKM pricing generates $4.36 million more in cargo value than it would have at this time last year, an Oil Authority calculation using OilPrice.com JKM data and LNG Prime project reporting.

TTF, the European gas benchmark, traded at $48.26 per megawatt-hour on May 28, 2026, up 3.59% on the day, per TradingEconomics. European gas storage sits at approximately 38% of capacity against a five-year seasonal average above 50%, per IEA data. An early-season heat wave forecast across London, Paris, and Madrid is adding power-sector gas demand at the moment storage is most critically below seasonal norms. European buyers are now competing directly with Asian counterparts for replacement LNG cargoes, keeping both TTF and JKM elevated.

Woodside's Australian LNG Portfolio

Woodside holds 100% of both the Scarborough gas resource and the Pluto LNG processing complex, making Scarborough a fully consolidated revenue stream with no joint-venture dilution. The company's legacy North West Shelf LNG project, a separate joint venture in which Woodside holds a 16.67% stake, is in its late-production phase. Scarborough and Pluto Train 2 represent Woodside's primary growth vehicle through the early 2030s.

Beyond Scarborough, Woodside released a new cost estimate for its long-delayed Browse LNG project in May 2026: $35 billion U.S. (AUD $48.7 billion), per Dobenergy reporting. Browse, which Woodside operates off the Kimberley coast, requires carbon capture and storage approvals before a final investment decision. The project has been delayed repeatedly since 2012 and the $35 billion figure highlights the capital intensity of greenfield deepwater LNG development at current cost levels.

Oil Authority reported the Canada-Germany LNG supply pact covering the KSI Lisims project in British Columbia, aimed at directing Canadian LNG to replace Qatar-origin supply for European buyers. KSI Lisims targets 2.1 million tonnes per annum. Woodside Scarborough's 5 MTPA output is 2.4 times larger and is scheduled to enter production earlier. Together, these two projects would still cover less than 56% of the 12.8 MTPA Ras Laffan gap.

IEA Global Supply Outlook

The IEA's May 2026 report estimated a cumulative loss of approximately 120 billion cubic metres of LNG supply between 2026 and 2030 as a result of the Ras Laffan damage and delayed expansion projects. That figure pushes back the anticipated global LNG supply wave by at least two years. The IEA's 32-member coordinated reserve release of 400 million barrels in March addressed crude supply, but LNG infrastructure damage cannot be offset by reserves releases.